Quote:
Originally Posted by UnderseaLcpl
I'm mostly in agreement with Skybird, though I do not share his prognosis of complete Chinese victory in the end. No point in debating it here, though. The important thing is that Sky has correctly identified the threat.
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What means "complete victory"? The Yuan will replace the dollar as the world's leading currency, there can be no doubt about that, and possibly earlier than was expected. The Chinese also have changed their economic policy goals to no longer being so dependent on exports to the US - because they do not get payed with money that is worth the number printed on it. They have declared it a priority goal just weeks ago to more focus on the internal market instead.
America will start to feel this from 2012 or 2013 on, I assume.
I also expect a shift in the way oil deals gets done so far. I think that oil-producing countries more sooner than later will start to do business in yuan, at the cost of dollar-deals. And that will be another potentially catastrophic blow to the dollar.
Point is that America not just has a money problem. It has a very deep-rooting, basic, economic
structural problem - and I do not see that anyone in America names it as that, and starts to adress that. The recipe of all people making decisons seems to be to just print more dollarsa. This strategy is no strategy for repair and improvment, but a guarantee for total collapse.
Some American banker today was quoted in the German press with having said the EU should do more to bail out its banks which are more in danger than the EU seem to realise. That may be ture or not, biut that he too does not mention at all the economic structural problems of America and instead focusses on just fiscal traffic patterns and demand that tax payers have to compensdate for fasiling bank management, tells me something about the extremely limited horizon and the tunnel view of many people in that kind of business.