After the battles around Nomonhan in the summer of 1939 there was never any realistic prospect of Japan launching offensive war against the Soviet Union.
The leadership of the Army in Manchuria had lost great face in defeat; one infantry division had been subtracted virtually in its entirety from the order of battle and another had lost almost all its heavy equipment and many of its soldiers. Much of the theatre air force lay in smoking piles on the Mongolian steppes and literally hundreds of Japanese soldiers had become prisoners of war and declared legally dead by the High Command.
Like the bully who had been badly beaten by a former victim, the Japanese Army and military junta would bend over backwards to avoid antagonizing Stalin right to the bitter end.
After Nomonhan the Imperial Navy's Southern Strategy became national policy and Japan turned towards areas in America's sphere of influence making a clash at some point, almost inevitable. The 'soft and decandent' Americans would be far easier pray than the seemingly formidable Bolshiviks so they told themselves.
The thrashing received by the Kwantung Army on the Khalkin Gol by the Red Army was one of the decisive events of WW2.
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