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Skybird · 02-27-11, 08:35 PM

http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/haupt...elt-am-Abgrund

This is the link for a German 45 docu on the year 1983 that I have seen this night. It was titled "Welt am Abgrund" and described the year 1983's extreme military crisis of which in this combination of links I never have thought before and that described events of which I never have heared. To sum it up: 1983 made the Kuba crisis look like a friendly picnic in the forest. And that is no joke - we are lucky that we are still here.

Presented by a well-known German historian, who has had several books and TV docus, mainly on the Nazi era, and basing on former American, German, British and Soviet militaries, spies and the CIA's chief historian confirming the claimed facts, the film describes several events from 1981 to 1983, an era of very strong American pressure and provocations against the USSR i order to test their military reaction times and patterns and to identitfy their radar stations. In 1981 a massive NATO fleet of 83 combat units and three carriers entered deep into the Northen Sea, and obviously penetrated much more into the Northern Norwegian Sea than was previously known - the units were not detected due to new active electronic countermeasures supressing Soviet radar. The fleet reached to striking distance of Murmansk before the Soviets knew it was there, and American Navy fighters started weeks of almost-hot dogfights with Soviet interceptors, sometimes offshore the coast around Murmansk. - The Soviets needed to understand this as a preparation for a preemptive attack - and they did.

1983 the US Navy again tested and provoced the Soviet air defence, this time in the area of Camchatka, whose defence perimeter was intruded by three carrier groups simultaneously, and again weeks anmd weeks of simulated attacks were flown, fdorcing the Soviets to fully acitvate their radar network and give away their station's locations and reaction patterns. It was in this setting that the Korean jumbo entered the airspace over Camchatka which just short time before was "raided" by American fighters and bombers, and the SAoviets still were at high alert due to the exchnage with the Americans, so they identified the civilian airliner as an American bomber, and shot it down. - Again, the Soviets necessarily had to take these events as a provocation and a preparation for an attack.

On 23. September was the day when mankind was more lucky than ever before. A new "Kosmos" spy satellite with defective software code misidentified the sunbeams of the raising sun at the Earth'S horizon as a missile launch in Montana, and triggered a major missile alert with the Soviet missile forces. Four more sunbeams triggered four more " missile" detections, and the Soviets were fully convinced that it was no test or false alarm, but this time it was real. Full alert was given, and by orders and regular routines this should have been the end of mankinds story. Just the Soviet officer who was in command decided to not obey the machine, and to judge that a strike with just 5 missiles, out of the3 blue, makes no sense, and he refused to press the button.

IN OTHER WORDS, IF THE SATELLITE WITH THE DEFECTIVE SOFTWARE WOULD HAVE REPORTED A STREAM OF DETECTED "MISSILES", THEN NOONE OF US WOULD BE HERE ANYMORE TO TELL THE STORY.

1983 was the year when the Marines were bombed in Beirut, with the result that the US military went on high alert around the globe. The Pershing-2s arrived in Germany, increasing the range of nuclear weapons on German soil from targets that still wre inside German borders, to ranges so that now Moscow could be struck, and this at a time when the Soviets already were turned into paranoids by the years of American provocations and serious incidents. And in this climate their intel then revealed to them that after the yearly autmun maneuvers of NATO, named REFORGER, all Western governments and the American president suddenly took a dive and disappeared in nuclear bunkers. This was called "Abel Archer", a test to exmaine the reaction patterns and mechnaism of NATO in case of a Nuclear war. Of course it was a maneuver, a cosim only, but after the past two years and Reagan have doomed the USSR to be the empire of evil, this last observation was too much: Moscow now was absolutely convinced that a NATO first strike was imminent.

It became worse when during Able Archer the firing codes for nuclear weapon stations around the world were transmitted, increasing the radio traffic which ELINT by the Sopviets of course detected. It was then when the Russians fully were in panic mode and knew that the worst nightmare of mankind, Armageddon, was inevitably coming.

And Western intel had no clue about the mood and fears and the alertness of the Soviets. Not good. They just started to note that the Warsaw Pact suddenly started to fully mobilise, for reasons "unknown".

This was the second time in 1983 when the fate of the world laid in the hand of just one single person, a British-Russian spy who worked for bpoth sides and whose latest orders for Moscow made him realising that Moscow was in panic and prepared for all-out war. He let the Brits know.

Now you know why in that late time of 1983 Roinald Reagan suddenly was moving to his ranch and many pictures and TV spots showed him living a peaceful, relaxed. In his memoires, Reagan said that 1983 made him feel deeply depressed when he realsied how close to the final abyss the world has been in this crisis - which most people have not taken note of, and did not even be aware of. Reagan had ejected at high speed from Able Archer and by those news snippets wanted to send an emergency communication to the Soviets: look, I live here peacefully and treat my horses - is this what a presidnet looks like who is about to launch world war III...?

There was a single day in that crisis where the Soviet bombers around Berlin for the first and the only time ever throughout the cold war had all left their shelters, were aligned close to the runways, pilots in cockpit, engines running, and live nuclear weapons under their wings. They were ready to go to nuclear war at the snipping of two fingers. Compared to that, the Cuba crisis was tame, and never was that close to initial allout nuclear war, because the Americans also always have reserved the preemptiver use of nuclear weapons - and German towns and cities were no American towns and cities, were they... WWIII - alwaqys would have started with the complete obliteration of the 100-200 biggest German cities and their surroundings in the first 30 minutes - both from Soviet and American nukes.

Guys, we are lucky that we are still here. And all that just becasue of some lines of junk code - the satellite was not defective, the code just was written bad.

Think of these events and the psychological reactions they triggered, before next time you uncritically embrace the fututre of fully automatted war technology and plans. That is true for robots, that is true for Star wars defence initiatives and missile shields, SSBNs and satellite networks. Not only is there no freedom from remaining risk - but there also always is the unpredictability of human psychology, and simple old fashioned bad luck.

Depending on luck is no wise strategy.

02-27-11, 08:35 PM	#1
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,602 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	The year of living dangerously: 1983 http://www.zdf.de/ZDFmediathek/haupt...elt-am-Abgrund This is the link for a German 45 docu on the year 1983 that I have seen this night. It was titled "Welt am Abgrund" and described the year 1983's extreme military crisis of which in this combination of links I never have thought before and that described events of which I never have heared. To sum it up: 1983 made the Kuba crisis look like a friendly picnic in the forest. And that is no joke - we are lucky that we are still here. Presented by a well-known German historian, who has had several books and TV docus, mainly on the Nazi era, and basing on former American, German, British and Soviet militaries, spies and the CIA's chief historian confirming the claimed facts, the film describes several events from 1981 to 1983, an era of very strong American pressure and provocations against the USSR i order to test their military reaction times and patterns and to identitfy their radar stations. In 1981 a massive NATO fleet of 83 combat units and three carriers entered deep into the Northen Sea, and obviously penetrated much more into the Northern Norwegian Sea than was previously known - the units were not detected due to new active electronic countermeasures supressing Soviet radar. The fleet reached to striking distance of Murmansk before the Soviets knew it was there, and American Navy fighters started weeks of almost-hot dogfights with Soviet interceptors, sometimes offshore the coast around Murmansk. - The Soviets needed to understand this as a preparation for a preemptive attack - and they did. 1983 the US Navy again tested and provoced the Soviet air defence, this time in the area of Camchatka, whose defence perimeter was intruded by three carrier groups simultaneously, and again weeks anmd weeks of simulated attacks were flown, fdorcing the Soviets to fully acitvate their radar network and give away their station's locations and reaction patterns. It was in this setting that the Korean jumbo entered the airspace over Camchatka which just short time before was "raided" by American fighters and bombers, and the SAoviets still were at high alert due to the exchnage with the Americans, so they identified the civilian airliner as an American bomber, and shot it down. - Again, the Soviets necessarily had to take these events as a provocation and a preparation for an attack. On 23. September was the day when mankind was more lucky than ever before. A new "Kosmos" spy satellite with defective software code misidentified the sunbeams of the raising sun at the Earth'S horizon as a missile launch in Montana, and triggered a major missile alert with the Soviet missile forces. Four more sunbeams triggered four more " missile" detections, and the Soviets were fully convinced that it was no test or false alarm, but this time it was real. Full alert was given, and by orders and regular routines this should have been the end of mankinds story. Just the Soviet officer who was in command decided to not obey the machine, and to judge that a strike with just 5 missiles, out of the3 blue, makes no sense, and he refused to press the button. IN OTHER WORDS, IF THE SATELLITE WITH THE DEFECTIVE SOFTWARE WOULD HAVE REPORTED A STREAM OF DETECTED "MISSILES", THEN NOONE OF US WOULD BE HERE ANYMORE TO TELL THE STORY. 1983 was the year when the Marines were bombed in Beirut, with the result that the US military went on high alert around the globe. The Pershing-2s arrived in Germany, increasing the range of nuclear weapons on German soil from targets that still wre inside German borders, to ranges so that now Moscow could be struck, and this at a time when the Soviets already were turned into paranoids by the years of American provocations and serious incidents. And in this climate their intel then revealed to them that after the yearly autmun maneuvers of NATO, named REFORGER, all Western governments and the American president suddenly took a dive and disappeared in nuclear bunkers. This was called "Abel Archer", a test to exmaine the reaction patterns and mechnaism of NATO in case of a Nuclear war. Of course it was a maneuver, a cosim only, but after the past two years and Reagan have doomed the USSR to be the empire of evil, this last observation was too much: Moscow now was absolutely convinced that a NATO first strike was imminent. It became worse when during Able Archer the firing codes for nuclear weapon stations around the world were transmitted, increasing the radio traffic which ELINT by the Sopviets of course detected. It was then when the Russians fully were in panic mode and knew that the worst nightmare of mankind, Armageddon, was inevitably coming. And Western intel had no clue about the mood and fears and the alertness of the Soviets. Not good. They just started to note that the Warsaw Pact suddenly started to fully mobilise, for reasons "unknown". This was the second time in 1983 when the fate of the world laid in the hand of just one single person, a British-Russian spy who worked for bpoth sides and whose latest orders for Moscow made him realising that Moscow was in panic and prepared for all-out war. He let the Brits know. Now you know why in that late time of 1983 Roinald Reagan suddenly was moving to his ranch and many pictures and TV spots showed him living a peaceful, relaxed. In his memoires, Reagan said that 1983 made him feel deeply depressed when he realsied how close to the final abyss the world has been in this crisis - which most people have not taken note of, and did not even be aware of. Reagan had ejected at high speed from Able Archer and by those news snippets wanted to send an emergency communication to the Soviets: look, I live here peacefully and treat my horses - is this what a presidnet looks like who is about to launch world war III...? There was a single day in that crisis where the Soviet bombers around Berlin for the first and the only time ever throughout the cold war had all left their shelters, were aligned close to the runways, pilots in cockpit, engines running, and live nuclear weapons under their wings. They were ready to go to nuclear war at the snipping of two fingers. Compared to that, the Cuba crisis was tame, and never was that close to initial allout nuclear war, because the Americans also always have reserved the preemptiver use of nuclear weapons - and German towns and cities were no American towns and cities, were they... WWIII - alwaqys would have started with the complete obliteration of the 100-200 biggest German cities and their surroundings in the first 30 minutes - both from Soviet and American nukes. Guys, we are lucky that we are still here. And all that just becasue of some lines of junk code - the satellite was not defective, the code just was written bad. Think of these events and the psychological reactions they triggered, before next time you uncritically embrace the fututre of fully automatted war technology and plans. That is true for robots, that is true for Star wars defence initiatives and missile shields, SSBNs and satellite networks. Not only is there no freedom from remaining risk - but there also always is the unpredictability of human psychology, and simple old fashioned bad luck. Depending on luck is no wise strategy. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.