I usually attribute the lack of success of democracy in mainland China to a few reasons. Anyways, I will try to be unbiased and discribe my understanding of the current situation:
The barriers against democracy
1. The problems in Taiwan.
In 1989, Taiwanese economy was at its peak. The society in Taiwan was stable, unemployment and crime was low. So many pointed at Taiwan and said that if mainland China was capitalist and if the citizens had as much freedom as they did in Taiwan, the mainland would do as well as Taiwan. (Taiwan was not fully democratic yet)
However, the current situation in Taiwan is viewed by many as being worse than the situation on the mainland. Their previous president was thrown in Jail for corruption, and a recent high profile attempted assassination leads many to believe that the mainland is doing better than Taiwan. Especially after the large scale protests and unrest in Taiwan around 2008-2009.
talk show hosts on the mainland now point to Taiwan. Saying that is mainland China ended up capitalist and democratic there would be as much unrest as Taiwan.
2. Government appeasement
The government is actually making progress in many areas. This is the first time in Chinese history that something has been done about the corruption in China. Many high level government authorities have actually been prosecuted for corruption within the past few years.
Minimum wages and other policies that improve the state of the average citizen have been implemented. Healthcare is being improved, and there was education reforms being implemented recently.
Even in the area of human rights there has been progress. You are now guaranteed 1 chance to appeal in court, and charges must be presented within 24 hours of your arrest or else the cops must let you go.
Every time you turn on the TV, you can see some government official promising progress. And in reality, they have kept their promises, progress have been made.
3. Low education levels
China has made huge progress in its education system. And almost everyone has been through 9 years compulsory education.
However, the average education level for Chinese citizens are still quite low. The majority of the population is comprised of farmers and guest workers from the rural areas. Freedom of speech and democracy does not matter for them, they do not care.
4. People do not care about democracy.
My friends in China (I believe most young people too) have low expectations. One of my friends claim that his goal before he gets to 30 is "to be able to afford my own apartment, get married, and be able to afford a decent car.
The average Chinese citizen lives in awful conditions. It is difficult for the Chinese man to be able to purchase an apartment without support from his parents. Without an apartment, it is impossible for him to get a wife.
Chinese society is more materialistic than western society. On a first date, the couple will almost always talk about their wages, if they have an apartment or not, and if they have a car or not.
If you don't have a car and an apartment, you have no chance of even getting a second date. Especially with the current male and female ratio in China.
When will democracy come?
The current state of Chinese society and the Direction its going is unsustainable. When it collapses, I believe democracy will come.
The average university grad will be lucky to be able to make 2000rmb per month.
5 years ago, my dad bought an apartment at the price of 8000 rmb per square meter. 2 years ago, a similar apartment could have easily fetched 20000 rmb per square meter. Currently, the price is pushing 30000.
How is an average university student expected to be able to afford an apartment? Also, the going price is 30000 per square meter, but in reality sales are going at much higher prices.
Also, an university grad can only make 2000 per month if he is employed in what he is trained for. There is a huge amount that is underemployed. Go to any computer store in china, the sales man is probably a university grad.
Inflation is taking its toll, ill let BBC explain:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-12238997
The problems are huge, however, most of them comes from economic reasons
As long as the communist party keeps solving these economic problems, they would stay in power for the foreseeable future.
the main concern for the average Chinese citizen is not human rights or democracy, its defiantly economy.
I give the communists at least ten more years. Demonstrations within the next ten years would be foolish, with 0 chances of success.
but I genuinely believe that democracy and freedom will arrive in China in the future.
This capitalist-communist society cannot last for long