[the_tyrant]

An opinion I saw on a Chinese forum(translated by me):

Why did the protests fail?

As we all know, the attempted protests today failed spectacularly. Support for the protesters was low. Protester numbers were way lower than expected. The crowed also failed to offer support to the protesters. Why is it like this?
What changed since the protests of 1989

The background (The current state of Chinese society)

1. is the everyman in China is satisfied with the current state of Chinese society?

Well, no. Chinese society has many unstable factors. High housing costs, unemployment, inflation, poor transportation and healthcare etc. These factors all contribute to instability within Chinese society.

2. The public's views on the government

The government and the communist party is held in a generally positive light in China. Within the last 5-10 years, the Chinese government has made large progress in many areas. Especially in rural areas where most of the efforts went.
In urban areas, public opinion towards the government is not as good as in the rural areas. Overpopulation, poor health care, unemployment, poor traffic conditions and many other problem plague Chinese cities.
Also, the urban population generally have higher levels of education, and more western influence. Therefore, government censorship and other limitations influence those who live in the city more than citizens in rural areas.

3. the internet and Chinese society.

Chinese society has been deeply influenced by the internet within the past few years. The Chinese government views the internet in a curious fashion, that could be described as "protectionism".
The government supports the domestic IT industry heavily. Software and hardware companies are being heavily supported by the government. However, many believe that the government is fearful of the content on the internet. Therefore, domestic companies whose products could be controlled are being heavily encouraged in China.

Within the last few years, many curious events happened on the internet in China. The most influential event is "My dad is Li Gang" (note: what happened was that the son of a government official hit someone with his car. When the police pulled him over, the first thing he said was "My dad is Li Gang!")

The event sparked controversy all over China. If the internet did not exist, Li Gang's son would have simply walked away after paying the victim a small amount of money. Because of the attention this event received on the internet, Li Gang was forced to resign. However, his son still walked away with a relatively light sentence.

The "My dad is Li Gang" event was the fist of its kind that was not censored or suppressed on the internet. However, as we can see from the outcome, the government does not know how to deal with internet controversy.
Censorship on the internet has loosened up a little within the last 2 years.

However, government sponsored commentator activity has increased exponentially. It is believed by many that government censorship doctrine has changed from purely blocking content undisireable to the government into manipulating the public's opinion.

4. China's views on the west

The average citizen is indifferent about the west. The media barely touches on the western world; both in works of fiction and in the news. It is mainly the younger generation and the students that cares of the west.

However, Japan is a completely different matter. Sino-Japanese relations were at its peak in the late 90s. However, currently the majority of the Chinese population do not view japan in a positive light. As witnessed in the Anti-Japan demonstrations within the past few years. This is mainly because of the historical conflicts and the negative portrayal of Japan in the media.

The students and the younger generation is divided on its views of the west. One group. known as the "patriotic youth"(note: my translation of 愤青), is generally against the west, and often supports the communist party.
On the other end of the spectrum, the "slaves of the west"(note: my translation of 洋奴) is often in support of the west, and is generally against the communist party. The opinions regarding the west is often a subject of discussion on the internet.


The events leading up to the protest

1. Events during the Chinese new year

During the Chinese new year transportation season (note: every year millions of guest workers working in the cities have to go back to the rural areas for the holidays) this year, many influential events occurred.

First of all, the riots in the middle east; the riots in the middle east had serious effects on the Chinese political environment. Opponents of the Communist party believe that it is the best opportunity for change in the Chinese political environment. Leading to the protests in China.

Secondly, the governments decision to not allow the guest workers to return.
Millions of guest workers shall leave Beijing and not return. Housing and transportation problems are too high in the major cities of China. Therefore, the government decided to not allow the guest workers to return to Beijing.

2. Prosecution of corruption
Corruption was rampant in the Chinese government. Because of the demonstrations in the middle east, the Chinese government was nervous of similar things happening in China. Therefore, the minister of transportation was "delt with" because of corruption. This has been proven to be an effective way to appease the general population.

3. high readiness
At the first sign of trouble, the government mobilized large amount of police and armed police (note: Chinese equivalent of SWAT)
any sign of trouble was suppressed quickly.

The protest
as we all know, the protest had little effect. Why? I believe it is because of the following reasons:

1.Low support from the population
The general public did not support the protests. The main site of the protests Beijing, now has little working class. Therefore, the group that was most likely to sympathize with the protesters was simply not there.
Also, government attempts to appease the population was extremely effective. Citizens were generally satisfied with the success of the government's anti corruption efforts.

2.The prosperity of the Chinese economy.
People tend to want change when they are not satisfied with their current environment.
However, the stock market did well lately, the economy is going stronger than most places around the world. And because of the lack of guest workers, the unemployment rate in Beijing is actually quite low.
therefore, the majority of the Beijing population simply does not want change

3. lack of organization
A large scale protest needs organization to be effective. However, this protest had little organization.
The protest originated from Chinese people overseas. The fact that they were overseas created some mistrust. Many netzens suspected them to be "CIA collaborators".
The biggest problem was that they cannot organize the protest, unlike the 1989 protests, creating confusion within the protesters.

my opinion
You see, I'm not a supporter of the communist party. I am especially against the fact that they are discouraging religion and their discrimination against homosexuals

But i believe (and I'm sure many other Chinese people believe too)
that although the current administration is not the best. However, they did bring prosperity, and progress. We support prosperity, and progress, therefore, change is undesirable at the moment.