I think option 2 is ok as well. But 10% is much to much.
If you want to use factor 5 to weather intervals, it's mean we have weather change about every 8h (40:5=8).
Theoretically 10% means after every 10 changes this chance is rolled (10x10=100%). So 10x8h=80h of bad weather. 80h/24h=3,3days so maximum storm duration is 3,3 days.
Chance 3% means after 33 weather changes chance is rolled (3x33=99% almost 100). So 33x8h=264h, 264h/24h=11days. So maksimum storm duration is 11 days.
Of course all this calculations give us only mathematical probability and change can be rolled even after first occasion or never. But showing most probable situation.
Last edited by Yoriyn; 11-26-10 at 04:58 AM.
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