Distance
Personally, I don't fire above 2000yds or less and when I miss it's almost always because I screwed up my solution not because the AI had time to react. Above 2000 yards etc I think increases the chances of the AI ruining your beautiful approach.
Get as close as you can and as mentioned, offset one of your fish to account for the possibility of a sudden deceleration.
For single merchants (I've yet to come across a convoy) I initially only fire two torps and from close range. The first strike usually..........usually, causes the ship to lose headway if it doesn't sink and the offset torp allows (usually) for the slow down and either hits in the same spot or catches it in the breadbasket. If those two torps don't put the ship under it certainly slows it down enough for me to setup another torp to finish it off.
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