10 seems a reasonable number to me. two things need to be considered:
1. submarine fleets are getting smaller, but more effective. the big cold war size fleets are a thing of the past.
2. Technology advances come so fast that it makes sense to invest in fewer subs, so you can replace them with newer ones when new/cheaper technology comes available.
The 10 virginias will combine with the 3 Seawolfs and 40 some odd Los Angeles class. As the Virginias commission, a few 688s are withdrawn. The US Navy has said they wanted a 50 boat submarine force. so, you might see 10 Virginias, 3 Seawolfs and 37 688i. They might drop that number down to 40. By the time the last virginias are hitting the water, a new sub will developed.
Even the Russians, who once had a fleet of some 200 attack submarines have fleet of only 30 attack subs today. Most of the modern navies of the world have less than 20 subs, many have less than 10.
during the height of the Reagan era, secretary lehman wanted a 600 ship navy. They came very close at one point. this is simply not needed anymore.
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