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Originally Posted by Happy Times
China isnt ready to start this stuff but the PLA generals are feeling cocky, some of the politicians that have sanity are trying to keep them in control.
There are huge internal tensions within China so creating external threats is the oldest solution.
Chinas currency manipulation on the otherhand is more about internal socio economic stability than an economic attack against US and EU.
Obama just toured Asia to strengthen ties with major players.
Seems US is trying to get India, Indonesia, South Korea, Japan and Australia in the same page in containing China if necessary.
Its a mixed congregation but neither of them want China to dominate the region.
Even Russia is awakening to where the real threat lies and started acting with some rationality towards the US, EU and NATO.
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You are spot on with the external threat deflecting the internal, the Chinese can't act strongly against the US because the US can deep six the Chinese economy more than the Chinese can the US. Japan is an easy target, they can push Japan but Japan can't really push back without the US doing the pushing, not at the moment anyway although there's a strong internal push within Japan to remove the importance on Article Nine and switch from a defensive military to a balanced military, furthermore there's more calls for Japanese involvement in foreign military deployments, but at the same time, still a lot of those who want to keep the JSDF as it is, but the evolution of the JSDF from post-WWII to now shows a gradual return to a normal military power, with the obvious exception of offensive long range weapons such as ballistic missiles, nuclear arms, or proper aircraft carriers.
There's also a long held grudge between China and Japan over World War Two, the rape of Nanking, the altering of Japanese school history books, and the infamous Yasukuni shrine. So, it's a pretty easy thing to exploit and ramp up to a point where it takes peoples minds off housing issues and the growing gap between inside of China and the coasts.
I do worry about the attempts to constrain China, and back it into a corner, wracked with internal difficulties and pushed in on all sides by the US, it might do something stupid.
It's either got to adapt or die, I hope that the new President...Xi Jinping, who comes in in 2012-13 will be the reformist that he looks to be, otherwise there will be a long slide into a second revolution and civil war.