Quote:
Originally Posted by Kazuaki Shimazaki II
Leaving the details of the evidence (which can be faked) aside and going by motive, North Korea arguably has the least reason to do the sinking. There might be the pride factor from the naval clash but if one counts objective gains and losses, clearly they have little to gain and much to lose.
If you say America, at least you can say that the incident helps add reason to them maintaining bases in Korea and Japan. I've even heard of arguments saying that getting NK to be even more isolated would be good from a Chinese perspective. Heck, even the Japanese can say that making NK look more like a threat would be a nice excuse to bolster the SDF, which some of their factions want to do.
Besides, for the sake of argument, what exactly were the South Koreans going to do if their investigation suggests that it was the Chinese or worse, the United States that did the sinking?
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Lets put reason aside and look at just who
could do it...
We have a warship steaming near hostile waters in depths of 40 meters, at speeds around 15 knots. 15 knots is
way beyond the speeds of a Swimmer Delivery Vehicle, and use of the corvette's active sonar could injure the divers. So unless the ship was mined in port with a time charge clandestine sabotage is unlikely, and I would rule out limpet mines placed in port since the DPRK is known to operated units with such capabilities so the ROKN would have defenses set up to prevent it. The waters are too shallow for a Nuclear submarine to operate in so a conventional boat would be necessary. Japanese subs are too big and would risk detection in such confined waters so that leaves a Chinese, North Korean or South Korean submarine.
I would rule out the South Koreans since that would require 30 ROKN sailors to agree to murdering their comrades, plus who knows how many shore personnel to cover up a warshot torpedo is missing.
Could the PRC do it, sure. Returning to why for a second; if the PRC wants to see North Korea more isolated they can do it them selves! The DPRK's only allies are countries like Iran and Myanmar who are not exactly in the positions to help them economically, politically or militarily.
Could the DPRK do it, yes for reasons that have been stated many times over.