Target shooting with a rifle has been a life-long hobby of mine and I can attest to the effect of wind on a shot from personal experience, even at relatively short ranges with light winds. I've never fired a submarine deck gun, but I have to imagine the wind would effect that too. Especially at longer ranges. It's the same basic concept as a rifle, just upscaled. Now, whether this is actually factored into the game is another question entirely and I don't see a way to test for a definitive answer to that question.
Edited to comment on your last paragraph: I would think that has more to do with the pitching of the deck/gun than the wind. If your gun barrel is pitching up and down due to rough seas, it would be very unlikely that you would ever pull the trigger at the exact same point of the pitch twice in a row. That Minute of Angle is very small at the muzzle, but gets bigger and bigger the farther out you go.
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