I know this is going to sound a bit picky, but what you are observing an alerted target doing is actually constant helming, rather than zig-zagging.
Zig zagging is something entirely different.
Fire at 90 degrees to his base course.
Magnetic triggers in case you get a glancing blow.
I'll use a target speed of two thirds (round up) of what it was before evasive procedures began, and I hit them more often than not.
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