[Skybird]

MAD depended on a minimum of rationality. And that is a quality that in case of religious fanatism glorifying the ideal of martyrdom is not a given anymore - religious fanatism is not rational.

I agree that an Iranian bomb is apparently the smaller problem, compared to the bigger problem of proliferation and nuclear terrorism. but under the umbrella of their bomb Iran can dare to become even more aggressive in the implementation of conventionally destabilising the region and supporting terror. This, and proliferation, are the reasons why simply thinking that anti-missile-shields in Iran'S neigjhbouring countries would be the trick, is a wrong thinking. Agaunst proliferation. internal destabilisation of other nations, and nuclear bombs delivered via shipping containers, missles shields do not protect any cover. Nor do they protect against the strategic consequences of a nuclear Iran: in the first this is a fight between Saudi Arabia (Sunni, Arabs) and Iran (Shia, Persians). It is a gamble for influence, and a civil war as well. Saudi Arabia will not and cannot afford to allow Iran gaining a decisive advantage when shifting the balances so massively in its favour. tukrey has ambitions to become the regionally dominant power - it will seek nuclear weapons, too (Erdoghan already closes ties with Ahmadinejadh, calling him a close friend). Syria will not accept to fall back in it's importance, it wants regional status and dominance as well.

That are too many potentially or already irrational if not insane players wanting to play MAD. It does not compare to the situation of the cold war. In the end, the US and the USSR for the most of the cold war wanted to keep the stability and wanted to keep the status quo, so that the risk of nuclear war remained low. This MAD 2.0 in the future is far more dangerous and uncalculatable. Some players in the region now do not want a stabile status quo, but want dominance and the fall of their rival.