[tater]

I think the real point of the OP was more that at the sharp-end, the guys in the PTO had it every bit as hard, or sometimes harder than in the ETO. In addition, they were not fighting for a sideshow, or "nothing" but a significant theater of operations, with importance.

I think that is certainly true on both counts.

That is was secondary is simple fact, and that the ETO was judged to be less certain is also a fact. That those tasked with the PTO as primary responsibility—the USN under King—thought the PTO was not really in doubt as an issue in the longer term is also uncontroversial, and "simple fact." They thought so, and hence agreed with "Europe first."

It's important to remember that the UK was already on the ropes, and the invasion of the CCCP had the germans literally in the suburbs of Moscow at the time of PH (though on the 6th a major counter-offensive was taking place there).

Had Germany secured Soviet oil, she would have been far more of a threat than she was without it (make no mistake, WW2 was almost entirely about oil for Germany and Japan when it comes down to it (slightly more secondary for Germany, but they required Soviet oil since their efforts to get Turkey to join (path to middle east) kept failing).

Want to know my idea for the most plausible axis win scenario—assuming a total "do over?"

Germans secure Turkey as an ally. Invade Poland along with their co-belligerent pals the Soviets (people forget the CCCP was 100% in the wrong in ww2). UK/France declare war, BoF happens as it did. UK isolated, germany keeps US out of war, and goes for the middle east as primary object with the aid of Turkey. Japan attacks only the UK in the PTO, and unlike themselves is nice to those they "liberate." Their focus is India. Link with Axis in middle east.

PS—someone needs to go to ebay and buy that book!