Nobody seems to know.
Ingame the visual sensor detection algorithm is so complicated that it seems impossible to reduce the nighttime detection by very much.
In reality, apparently, it depended on various factors such as moon, clouds, sea state, etc.
On a calm, clear, moonlight night, I wouldn't be surprised if people could see out to 10km+. They would see the black silhouettes of ships against the lighter sky and against the stars. If you spend any time in real seas you'd know that the Beerywater sky is actually much more accurate than the stock SH3 one, by the way.
Of course, in SH3, moonlight is not simulated at all. Instead there's an ambient light to ships in all situations.
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