I'd believe a Cuban sub, particularly a minisub. However, it leaves the big question of, WHY.
Cuba can get any intel about this area it needs from any of the several million Cubans living in the area. (Not saying that 99.9% of the local ex-Cubans would do that, just saying that I find it hard to believe the Cuban government doesn't have anyone on the ground here. Ditto to Venezuala or any of the other banana peoples republics)
And if it were just a training mission, precision navigation, or the like, why get so close to shore, and risk an international incident?
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