Wooly is far more credible than I, but I can help here a bit!
1. Grids are indeed based on flotilla operating areas and very historical.
2. Like Wooly said, that shot was probably a once in a career stroke of luck. There is always a chance of critical damage (game engine-wise); as I understand it it is location specific using manual targeting and random using the weapons officer. Did you see the hit/ result? Did it blow up big like a magazine was hit maybe?
3. These contacts often come with a radio message, but other times they are contacts probably reported by aircraft, other subs, etc.
4. My experience here is the same as Woolys; Sometimes it gets spotted and sometimes it doesn't.
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