Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainHaplo
Avenger pilots have claimed it could have been as late as even 10pm based on leaning back as much as possible, but given that would have been done from the outset, somewhere between 7-8 is a reasonable assumption.
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which
could at least in theory put the TBM avenger flight and the PBM aircraft in roughly the same position at the same time.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainHaplo
What does raise a problem with the midair crash theory is the USS Solomon. The Solomon had the PBM on its radarscope at the time of the explosion, and no other objects were noted in the vicinity. Had Flight 19 been in the area - radar contact should have shown up, and that close radio contact would also have been clear.
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given the rapidly deteriorating meteorological conditions at the time it is entirely probable... especially in early radar systems in use at the time, that the USS Solomon was experiencing something known as "Anomalous Propagation" wherin various meteorological events can render radar more or less useless at even short ranges.
While one aircraft may be observed, another may not. I have - on one occasion, in particularly poor weather experienced this, as air traffic controllers - even with modern radar did not even pick up my
primary contact which - on a clear day - even a flock of birds would likely give off.
(my transponder was not activated at the time) and i was about 10 miles away from the radar site. It was not until some figiting with the transponder and finally getting it to work that my aircraft appeared to controllers out of nowhere. Though i was not located in any rain - there was lots of it around, with rapidly reducing pressure and temperature. with lightning appearing to the distant west.
Based on communications between the controller and other aircraft in the area at the time, he had no problems seeing those aircraft of similar size on radar.
early radar systems were particularly prone to this sort of thing, especially at sea, with rapidly changing temperature conditions, thunderstorm or precipitation activity. - which was the case that night. - furthermore anomolous propogation is more prone to occur after sunset believe it or not as the earth's ionosphere settles in at lower altitudes than it sits during the day.
Reports as to the proximity of the SS Gaines Mills to the explosion it observed differ. I have seen accounts which place the ship within spitting distance of the explosion, to reports that the estimate placed it to within a few miles.
either way, dark had by now set in for at least an hour... it is entirely possible that the first and only indication that an aircraft was overhead would have been the explosion itself... at this time, nobody aboard the Gaines Mills would have likely had any clue as to how many aircraft might have been involved in the explosion just by looking up and seing a ball of fire.
truth is we will probably never know.
however, the mid-air collision theory is not by any means filled with holes. Radio location places the avenger flight about 140 miles east of the location where the PBM exploded, heading due west.
given an average ground speed of 140 - 150 mph - it is entirely possible that these two flights converged at the PBM's crash site
The mid-air theory is plausible, makes sense and is one of the more logical explanations.