Well,
I think without the Euro, Germany would be heading for disaster.
There was a time when Germans wanted to be Europeans more than to be Germans. European unification was an unshakeable goal. That time is long gone, there’s no doubt about it. With German reunification, this country has learned to be proud again.
Bring the bloody Deutschmark back and let France run what’s left of the eurozone. Go ahead and wallow in your smug sense of superiority! But that will be a horribly short-lived high, that’s for sure. After all, what would happen if Germany withdrew from the euro?
A currency appreciation of about 30 per cent over against the residual euro would be the upshot. A 30 per cent revaluation would give French and Italian industries, as well as those of Belgium, the Netherlands and Slovakia, a huge competitive edge on the world markets. The remaining eurozone would experience a massive export boom and, liberated from Germany, could finally grow. And since the French have a more pragmatic approach to consolidating the state budget than the Germans, because they rightly believe growth is more effective than cost-cutting in straightening out the economy, the remaining eurozone would be in for bumper years ahead.
What about the Germans with their new mark? Their stability would be knocked for six. The appreciation of the Deutschmark would make “Made in Germany” too expensive. Exports would collapse: German companies’ sales abroad would decrease as a function of France & Co.’s export increase. It’s that simple. Unemployment would rise, as would the national debt, because more people would be dependent on benefits. Because growth, which currently comes from exports alone, would be stifled. Labour costs here would then really be too high and wage temperance the order of the day. More years of privation would lie ahead.
The monetary union can only relieve internal tensions by working together. A €9 billion loan to Greece is peanuts compared to Germany’s go-it-alone exploits. And there can be no serious discussion of any country at all leaving – let alone being expelled – from the club.
I vote they won't leave.
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