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I don't think one can discount the massive marketing power of a major publisher like Ubi or EA. When Sonalysts decided to publish their own game, Dangerous Waters, as a direct download only (to begin with) the sales were terrible, even though that game was the first and best example of a sub/ship/air naval simulation.
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Yeah, so far despite the best efforts of electronic distributers, there is still nothing as tempting for the casual customer as going to a shopping center and seeing a DVD box with a good art cover in the shelf. Of course those guys who are constantly in the internet and looking for the latest news on games and specifically on the genere they like will buy it via pay-download, but the hige market of gut-customers attracted by the DVD label is that way largely mishandled.