According to at least one source I've read (Cold War Submarines by Polmar and Moore) Doenitz knew as early as the late thirties that the contemporary type of submersibles had a limited future. As soon as Radar was advanced enough (and surface forces owned the surface) the type VII and IX were through.
Herbert Werner (Iron Coffins) was more critical, understanding that by 1943 the boats of the period were basically useless against the allied advances.
Hence the explorations into alternative designs as early as 1942.
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