If the game is well balanced and you play with all realism settings at 100%, you should never be able to sink an entire convoy or task force and so the point will be moot. I hope it will be that way.
If you sink one or two ships in a convoy of 20, the only effect you will have is to get more escorts on your back. The net effect of 2 ships lost will be minimal in the overall picture. So you don't change the outcome of the war, but things around you move a tad to build the feeling that you're part of the war, not just an outside element as in SH3/4.
In SH3 you can sink several million tons, in a dynamic environment that would be very problematic. If SH5 is made in such a way that you can't expect "Ace" tonnage all the time, then it's going to be a thrill as you'll actually struggle to have any influence to begin with, and any effect you do have will be very rewarding.
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