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karamazovnew · 01-02-10, 04:41 PM

I hate economics. If you wouldn't mind a small detour, let me tell you where we're heading.

I live in a country where piracy is extremely common. To put it simple, it's not a phenomenon, it's a way of thinking. People have money to buy a PC or a console but not enough money to continue to buy games (or they just buy World of Warcraft and stop there). If it weren't for piracy, the IT market would simply collapse here. Playstation 2 and 3 have not yet been cracked globally. XBOX has been cracked though and many here prefer to buy a console for 1/3 of the money they spend on a PC and then get free games and even have enough money left to buy originals like L4D, MW2 and other multiplayer games. The fun about Xbox and original games is the community and achievements and DLC's and so on, so it's still safe.

The game of the year on Gamespot is Demon's Souls, a game made exclusive for PS3. For many years now PC users have had to other wait for years to play ported games (GTA), or get very poor ports (like Force Unleashed). But right now we're seeing the beginning of the end for PC gamers. Not only is piracy much easier to keep in check but consoles also have the appeal of not having to upgrade them every year. Plus, a console can be a video player, music player, web browser and so on.

Soon, Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo and Sega will decide that it's better to join forces and create fixed and portable media centers. These consoles of the future will have an unified game engine protected in compiled files. Games will be much much smaller and easier to develop across different platforms. All platforms will communicate with each other. Even more, with the advent of 3d movies, soon we'll have a new hardware codec for movies and music. But you know what? They will be as protected as drugs. Right now it's not illegal to make an MP3 because each person has the right to record themselves. DIVX's are not illegal because each person has the right to record his weddings. Those new codecs however will be SECRET and illegal to break, transfer or own. These new file systems will be forced to run on individual consoles with unique ID's. Hard media will disappear. All media will be in downloadable format. We already have Steam and iTunes but they're not mandatory because not everybody has internet. 20 years ago the internet was NOTHING. Look at it now. Soon, every phone call, all TV channels everything will be in internet form. Free internet available everywhere. No more excuses that you don't have it.

20 years from now the internet will have 3 main threads. Media download and game connection, Browsing, and file transfer for firms. Completely separate with different protocols and IP's. No more viruses.
Game development could turn into a free area where anybody can use a simple game designer and create anything. We already have XNA and it's amazing what one can do with it. But it requires time and skill. However, in the future, these game editors could be much much more powerful and easier to use. However this would require a PC or special compliers and a different free market. I highly doubt that the game industry will allow such a "mistake".

Consoles will be shipped with a special credit card. Many don't use their cards on the net because they're afraid. New credit cards will be made, a new payment protocol, universal credits and different country currency rates. If in Romania sales suck because people don't have money to spend on games, music and video, they'll just lower the currency rate so people can buy more credits with the same money.

So, you might say, what's wrong with this future? I'll tell you. Imagine a future where all games come in pieces and you pay for each. You want to play Silent Hunter? You buy the game, it gets transfered to your console. You want to play Type VII, you pay. You want to play Type IX, you pay. You want to get new torpedoes, you pay. You want to listen to a new gramophone song, you pay. Little by little by little. Regardless of how many games you play or how much music you listen to, or how many movies you see, you'll usually end up spending a lot. Commercials will be rampant and aggressive. Marketing will have free reign. Modding will be gone forever. They'll even create a fictitious way to make money, by playing. I have a friend who doesn't have a job, but plays WoW and sells money. He gets enough to make by. There will be many more ways: achievement hunting, competitions, support, game masters and so on. More and more will be stuck in a new economy which will be used as a regulator for the real economy.

Gone will be the dream of free media, of a free global knowledge database. Very bleak indeed. But don't blame piracy for it. I blame piracy for making me stand more in front of the computer, time better spent on women or drinking with friends. If it weren't for piracy, I never would've played, and eventually bought, Silent Hunter 3 and 4. I wouldn't be waiting for SH5 for which I have already saved money for the collector's edition. In simple terms, I wouldn't even be here on this forum. So don't blame piracy. Blame profit. Blame economics. Blame this devil that money is.

I may be an atheist but I say God bless Linux and modding communities. Here's the Star Trek vision come to life in the virtual world. A vision of using your potential to bring enjoyment to others. May it last forever

PS: sorry about that... had it in me for a while.

01-02-10, 04:41 PM	#66
karamazovnew The Old Man Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: Bucharest, Romania Posts: 1,403 Downloads: 151 Uploads: 0	I hate economics. If you wouldn't mind a small detour, let me tell you where we're heading. I live in a country where piracy is extremely common. To put it simple, it's not a phenomenon, it's a way of thinking. People have money to buy a PC or a console but not enough money to continue to buy games (or they just buy World of Warcraft and stop there). If it weren't for piracy, the IT market would simply collapse here. Playstation 2 and 3 have not yet been cracked globally. XBOX has been cracked though and many here prefer to buy a console for 1/3 of the money they spend on a PC and then get free games and even have enough money left to buy originals like L4D, MW2 and other multiplayer games. The fun about Xbox and original games is the community and achievements and DLC's and so on, so it's still safe. The game of the year on Gamespot is Demon's Souls, a game made exclusive for PS3. For many years now PC users have had to other wait for years to play ported games (GTA), or get very poor ports (like Force Unleashed). But right now we're seeing the beginning of the end for PC gamers. Not only is piracy much easier to keep in check but consoles also have the appeal of not having to upgrade them every year. Plus, a console can be a video player, music player, web browser and so on. Soon, Sony, Microsoft, Nintendo and Sega will decide that it's better to join forces and create fixed and portable media centers. These consoles of the future will have an unified game engine protected in compiled files. Games will be much much smaller and easier to develop across different platforms. All platforms will communicate with each other. Even more, with the advent of 3d movies, soon we'll have a new hardware codec for movies and music. But you know what? They will be as protected as drugs. Right now it's not illegal to make an MP3 because each person has the right to record themselves. DIVX's are not illegal because each person has the right to record his weddings. Those new codecs however will be SECRET and illegal to break, transfer or own. These new file systems will be forced to run on individual consoles with unique ID's. Hard media will disappear. All media will be in downloadable format. We already have Steam and iTunes but they're not mandatory because not everybody has internet. 20 years ago the internet was NOTHING. Look at it now. Soon, every phone call, all TV channels everything will be in internet form. Free internet available everywhere. No more excuses that you don't have it. 20 years from now the internet will have 3 main threads. Media download and game connection, Browsing, and file transfer for firms. Completely separate with different protocols and IP's. No more viruses. Game development could turn into a free area where anybody can use a simple game designer and create anything. We already have XNA and it's amazing what one can do with it. But it requires time and skill. However, in the future, these game editors could be much much more powerful and easier to use. However this would require a PC or special compliers and a different free market. I highly doubt that the game industry will allow such a "mistake". Consoles will be shipped with a special credit card. Many don't use their cards on the net because they're afraid. New credit cards will be made, a new payment protocol, universal credits and different country currency rates. If in Romania sales suck because people don't have money to spend on games, music and video, they'll just lower the currency rate so people can buy more credits with the same money. So, you might say, what's wrong with this future? I'll tell you. Imagine a future where all games come in pieces and you pay for each. You want to play Silent Hunter? You buy the game, it gets transfered to your console. You want to play Type VII, you pay. You want to play Type IX, you pay. You want to get new torpedoes, you pay. You want to listen to a new gramophone song, you pay. Little by little by little. Regardless of how many games you play or how much music you listen to, or how many movies you see, you'll usually end up spending a lot. Commercials will be rampant and aggressive. Marketing will have free reign. Modding will be gone forever. They'll even create a fictitious way to make money, by playing. I have a friend who doesn't have a job, but plays WoW and sells money. He gets enough to make by. There will be many more ways: achievement hunting, competitions, support, game masters and so on. More and more will be stuck in a new economy which will be used as a regulator for the real economy. Gone will be the dream of free media, of a free global knowledge database. Very bleak indeed. But don't blame piracy for it. I blame piracy for making me stand more in front of the computer, time better spent on women or drinking with friends. If it weren't for piracy, I never would've played, and eventually bought, Silent Hunter 3 and 4. I wouldn't be waiting for SH5 for which I have already saved money for the collector's edition. In simple terms, I wouldn't even be here on this forum. So don't blame piracy. Blame profit. Blame economics. Blame this devil that money is. I may be an atheist but I say God bless Linux and modding communities. Here's the Star Trek vision come to life in the virtual world. A vision of using your potential to bring enjoyment to others. May it last forever PS: sorry about that... had it in me for a while.