Quote:
Originally Posted by Fincuan
Or it goes like the British withrawal from Aden in the 1960's: The local population doesn't really thinkg the government's forces up to the job, and correctly deduce that supporting the Brits now means a bullet in the head later-on when they've pulled out. As a result the support for the Brits plunged and outbursts and violence against them increased. They managed to hold the country together almost until the pre-designated date, but when they finally pulled out, a bit early, the People's Republic of South Yemen was declared the next day.
That's why I always think setting a fixed withrawal date is a bad idea if the local forces aren't in tip-top shap to handle the situation and the local government isn't in much better shape either.
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Karsai has arranged himself comfortably with being suported and protected by wetsern soldiers. His own family is in the drug trade, and the leadership and poltical class in general is corrupt, with many warlords additonally cooking their own soup. So, setting up a date until they must have gotten their homework fixed sounds liike a good idea.
Unfortunately I think that the options and capacities of any central government in Kabul always will be overestimated. Sooner or later any government in the coming years probably will end like Nadjibullah after the Soviet era. Holding out a little time while his alliances get bought off (alliances never lasts long in Afghanistan), then getting overrun.