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Its very simple and relatively accurate. Its simply X amount of money was spent on the program as a whole divided by Y amount of cars that would not have otherwise been sold as part of the program.
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Therein lies the problem.
Leave aside X (which was wrong anyway) and examine Y
How many ways at first glance can you see why Y is wrong?
At second glance how many more ways can you see that Y is wrong?
Explore further the Y and see how many more ways Y is wrong
?
Then take X which was wrong and take Y which was wrong(even from the start point) and Y which was wrong and Y which was wrong again and Y which wasn't right and Y which was a ballsup and Y which ain't right.......then come back with your X/Y equation.
When the sum went wrong at the first step all subsequent steps are meaningless.
It really is a situation where Donald Rumsfelt could have made an accurate statement