The Argentinians underestimated us last time to the extent that they did not
think we would even try to hold on to the islands, let alone deliver a
devastating blow that would quickly lead to the toppling of the Argentinian
military government. Even they are not capable of thinking that they could
acheive it now.
The Argentinian military was very much at it's peak during the Falklands;
mainly due to the extremely pro-military government. Whilst Argentinian
technology has advanced, the military has shrunk in size and they still lack
the highly trained infantry that the British continue to excel with (SAS,
Blackwatch, etc; most of which have trained on the Falklands at
sometime!).
Our Navy has the same number of carriers available as it did during the
Falklands and the amphibious ability of the Royal Navy has improved
dramatically. Our Submarine force is still highly potent. In six years time
will will posses the world's newest carrier class with a second ship to follow
in 2018. Our current conventional ground/sea missile force was almost
non-existent during the Falklands.
The Falklands it's self is now heavily garrisoned by fresh troops and
hardened veterans of the Middle East. Fortifications have been built on
parts of the island. It's a regular venue for training and wargames. All
manner of scenarios are rehearsed.
At any given time one or more infantry battalions and aircraft carriers are
on 24 hour notice to be deployed to the Falklands. Commitments elsewhere
would not significantly impede first reactions.
Argentina's air force consists of ~35 A4 Skyhawks (from 1976) and 11
Mirage 5 jets (1979). This is contrasted by the 80+ jet aircraft fielded in
1982.
Whilst these planes where a threat in 1982, they are not of serious concern
to the Tornados or Typhoons that could be deployed in much greater numbers by just one of our carriers.
According to
THIS report:
Quote:
In a May 2007 op-ed to the conservative Argentine daily La
Nacion, former Defense Minister Horacio Jaunarena declared that the
average age of the country’s military hardware is thirty years. He reported
that the army was operating at 30% of its supposed strength, due to its
limited ability to house and feed its troops, as well as to maintain its
equipment and weaponry. The former official gave other examples, such as
that out of 31 military transport aircraft in inventory, only four were
currently operational. Although the Argentine navy is considered new in
comparison to those found in other countries across the continent, it
remains one of the less potent in terms of its inherent military capacity.
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