This seems like a good idea on the face of it. Established software companies could potentially use this business model to reach otherwise unreacheable target markets. I really see no reason why they wouldn't pursue it, other than the possibility of generating some consumer backlash if they fail to deliver.
Seeing as how this idea comes from Valve, it could either succeed spectacularly or fail utterly. It's hard to predict which.
Imo, Valve will never be able to truly abandon the conventional model. There are simply too many different desires to satisfy. Don't believe me? Just ask a modder. Getting a person to buy or download a product because it falls within acceptable parameters is one thing, but building a product that satisfies all of your investors' desires is quite another, and getting anyone to invest again if the initial attempt produces a sub-par game is another thing altogether. That is too many "ifs" for my liking, but that is not to say that Valve couldn't pull it off if they had a good marketing strategy and suitably flexible programmers and artists, which is in itself yet another hurdle to overcome.
I'm inclined to believe that this particular model will not work just yet. The timing is atrocious, given the current state of the economy. (Yes, even with the recent surge)The market is still far too volatile to commit to something as time-consuming as the development of modern entertainment software. Where is this disposable investment income going to come from? Has there been a spike in employment or production that I am not aware of? Does this resurgent sector of the economy typically employ avid gamers within the dominant 18-29 age group or give them the means to purchase games for their 9-17 year-old, predominantly male offspring? I think not, for a number of reasons, including the fact that 18-29 year-old age groups rarely have offspring that fall within the 9-17 year-old range.
The more I look at it, the more I think that this initiative was pioneered by persons with only a keyhole's glimpse of the economy as a whole, and brought to the table by a series of imaginatve PowerPoint presentations.
This approach might work if it is properly employed, but it would take a marketing genius and an expert team of developers to ever come to fruition, especially if the strategy is to offer dividends on game sales. It is possible, but I wouldn't risk a single dollar on it unless the prospects of return on investment were very good, and preferably, had already been demonstrated. As a consumer, I much prefer to have software companies lining up to offer me products that I am at liberty to purchase or ignore.
Thankfully, as a niche group of gamers, we have modders and independent developers to fall back on, and their drive and motivation is not extinguished by profit forecasts. While it would be nice if some company benevolently decided to produce a major subsim with mass appeal and sales and scalable everything and the ability to cater to the virtually infinite range of gameplay features we routinely request, the probability is that it isn't going to happen. Then again, there's a reason that I'm not a marketing strategist. Perhaps it will work after all.
