Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
The deterrance simply lies in that you threaten to take revenge.
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That is not enough.
You threats have to be believed.
Potential enemies must believe that you would carry out the retaliation
threats, despite it being illogical and unethical to do so for the reasons
Kazuaki pointed out.
The MAD mechanic only appears and works when everyone believes
that everyone else follows the MAD mechanic (over and above logic
and ethics).
MAD has a fragile existence born of a kind of circular reasoning.
Fortunately, it isn't MAD that is the main deterrent against using Nukes
anymore. MAD was born when there where only two major nuclear
powers: The USSR and the USA (and a few smaller NATO members).
Both sides had enough weapons to ensure the total destruction of the
other side. MAD was the only option.
Now there are more Nuclear armed countries and none of them have
the capability to utterly destroy every single other nuclear armed
country. Even if several countries are destroyed and they do not launch
MAD counter attacks, there is a good chance that other countries not
attacked or not completely destroyed will get nervous and start getting
preemptive. There is a good chance nukes will fly your way, even if no
one takes part in a post-strike MAD retalliation.