SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - Missing plane probably crashed in the Atlantic

Skybird · 06-02-09, 06:59 AM

No verified information yet, so just some guesses.

1. lightning strike usually is not dagerous for an airplace, since it is pretty much a Faraday-cage and the energy harmlessly dances on the skin and disappears if there is no contact to the ground, you get some scratches in the painting eventually, and that'S it. However, what happens if the plane is struck by two lightnings simultaneously, or a lightening so strong that it travels on and contacts the plane to the ground? Probability says this is a very small chance only. However, it is not impossible.

2. An airliner at FL300 and higher, can soar for around 150-220 km, if all engines fail. That leaves one of the pilots the time to contact ground control.

3. All vital electric systems have 3 and 4 backups. Additional to the engine generators (each engine it's own egnerator), there is the RAM air turbine, and battery. All vital ciorcuits can take over duties from damaged curcuits, the system is designed to be redundant.

I take it as a given that there must have been more happening than just a lightening strike. Whatever happened, it must have happened incredibly fast, leaving the pilots no time to react or to communicate.

So, as often in air desasters, the likely cause of the catastrophe is not a single event, but an unfortunate unfortunate combination of several singluar events, of which each single one probably would have caused no dramatic consequences if happening all alone.

While in theory it is possible, I do not assume that there was a total and complete loss of electricity caused by a normal lightning strike. If it was a lightning strike, than it probably was no "normal" one, but some phenomenon that is extremely rare.

"Software error" I have very high on my list. Or mid-air-destruction by exploding fuel or engine, or explosive cabin depressurization, which still leaves the question of what caused it. My focus is not so much on lightning, but turbulences. Maybe the plane simply lost an airwing that broke away, or the tail, for example. On the other hand the plane was young, and had undergone a routine major maintenance pitstop just weeks ago.

While currently there is being seen a link between the heavy weather zone they were passing, and the accident, this does not rule out that the weather had nothing to do with it - it could have been a bomb, too, so it is too early to rule out terrorism or organised crime.

Doing research at location is difficult, and maybe we will never learn what happened. If the wreck lies too deep in the water, the blackbox maybe will never be found.

06-02-09, 06:59 AM	#9
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,680 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	No verified information yet, so just some guesses. 1. lightning strike usually is not dagerous for an airplace, since it is pretty much a Faraday-cage and the energy harmlessly dances on the skin and disappears if there is no contact to the ground, you get some scratches in the painting eventually, and that'S it. However, what happens if the plane is struck by two lightnings simultaneously, or a lightening so strong that it travels on and contacts the plane to the ground? Probability says this is a very small chance only. However, it is not impossible. 2. An airliner at FL300 and higher, can soar for around 150-220 km, if all engines fail. That leaves one of the pilots the time to contact ground control. 3. All vital electric systems have 3 and 4 backups. Additional to the engine generators (each engine it's own egnerator), there is the RAM air turbine, and battery. All vital ciorcuits can take over duties from damaged curcuits, the system is designed to be redundant. I take it as a given that there must have been more happening than just a lightening strike. Whatever happened, it must have happened incredibly fast, leaving the pilots no time to react or to communicate. So, as often in air desasters, the likely cause of the catastrophe is not a single event, but an unfortunate unfortunate combination of several singluar events, of which each single one probably would have caused no dramatic consequences if happening all alone. While in theory it is possible, I do not assume that there was a total and complete loss of electricity caused by a normal lightning strike. If it was a lightning strike, than it probably was no "normal" one, but some phenomenon that is extremely rare. "Software error" I have very high on my list. Or mid-air-destruction by exploding fuel or engine, or explosive cabin depressurization, which still leaves the question of what caused it. My focus is not so much on lightning, but turbulences. Maybe the plane simply lost an airwing that broke away, or the tail, for example. On the other hand the plane was young, and had undergone a routine major maintenance pitstop just weeks ago. While currently there is being seen a link between the heavy weather zone they were passing, and the accident, this does not rule out that the weather had nothing to do with it - it could have been a bomb, too, so it is too early to rule out terrorism or organised crime. Doing research at location is difficult, and maybe we will never learn what happened. If the wreck lies too deep in the water, the blackbox maybe will never be found. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 06-02-09 at 07:10 AM.