[Skybird]

For the time being, N-Korea trades threats for goods. the deal usually goes like this: they provoke, intimidate, have a test, thr world goes loud and crazy, and the bad man promises to play nice for some weeks if he gets what he wants: money, food and energy deliveries.

I currently cannot see anybody being willing to replace this - admitted: bullying - exchnage trade system being replaced with open war. Lresson from the Balkan wars: most of the targetted Serbian tanks escaped, so did most of their heavy artillery, although NATO had undisputed air superiority. Now, N-Korea holds maybe the greatest, at leasts one of the greatest forces of simple artillery pieces worldwide, and much of it is stationed in breach of the Seoul area, or could be moved into reach within one day. To assume that any air force - including then american Air Force - is capable to supress that immense ammount of guntubes from the beginning on so that they are not able to turn most of seoul into ashes, is extremely optimistic, and in the face of the Balkan experinces: naive.

If you talk about war on the Korean peninsula, you will the death of tens if not hundreds of thousands of civilians. Seoul and surroundings is incredibly densely populated.

Realax everybody, take a deep breath, switch on your b rain again. The airstrikes you mdemand will not be started, the allout war is further delayed.

Kim surely is a pain in the lower bottom, but his major threat is not open war in the region, but N-Korea selling key nuke tech to people we do not want to have access to nuke tech. Like with Iran, proliferation is what the game is about. Seen that way, N-Korea's action today and in the past 4 months were pendants to TV commercials. They are advertising.

Hopes of the good-willing peace-at-all-cost-fans that the problem will solve itself if only you wait long enough, also are off track. A Korean reunification, an opening to the south or the West, would mean that the N-korean poulation learns information the rgime cannot control, so the people will learn the turth about their situation and this simply means the end of the power-basis of the regime. Therefore, the regime will never allow such events to happen, and will not allow peace-promoting actions to lead too far.

Only current option I see as realistic is to contain proliferation efforts, and to infiltrate N-korea's nuke tech induistry as good as possible. To contain proliferation, you need both Russia and china, who have economic interests. - Maybe you now see why I say it is so very very stupid and shortsighted to always provoke Russia (and China). This Korean issue is a thousand times more important than all Georgia, Ukraine and Aserbaidjhan will and can ever be. Instead we must find the key triggers that make Russia and China agree to isolate N-korea and control it's borders strictly and hopefully contain proliferation. We need to polay for time, and an unknown ammount of it. I hate to need playing for time, but that'S how it is. Korea is currently mor eimportant than Iran, and both nations thrat potential bases not so much on them starting world war III, but proliferation. The main tool to prevent that can only be infiltration, targetted elimination, intel operations, surgical counter terror operations, supporting local opposition and trying to trigger a coup, if possible (not likely) - not air strikes. And this is true for N-korea as well as Iran, at least as long as you are not willing to use nuclear weapons yourself in the first, and will the death of hundreds of thousands of innocents. Using nukes I see as the only valid military option, every other military option currently seems to be doomed to cause not an end with horror, but horror without end. That'S why I am a bit gloomy about military options in this case. we even do not know where the nukes are. we do not know it in case of Korea. not in case of Pakistan. And we do not know the precise coordinates of key components of the Iranian program. If we would know these informations, I would all be for an immediate total nuclear strike to take these nuclear targets out completely and close these ongpoing annoyjng chapters of world policy. but we do not know, so - as long as I hear no better option, we need to play for time. If times go by and things turning worse, we still can launch wars and massacre some hundred thousand people. But we must not hurry ahead with it. Nuclear war is not fun.