Quote:
Originally Posted by JALU3
Here's an idea, since the Mogadishu UN/AU backed government is not effective in controlling its territory, both land and sea, the state of Somalia should be retrograded to the status of a Trust Territory, as it was post WWII. A lead nation should be designated, and a UN military mission be reestablished to bring law and order to the territory and its territorial waters. Those who do not comply are considered hostile, and appropriate action be taken. Once a safe environment is established, aid agencies can enter to assist in any humanitarian issues, and appropriate groups should be tasked to direct rebuilding efforts regarding critical infrastructure. With that the natural market should create a need which would be fulfilled by internal sources, or create trade via importation.
|
Good luck in finding a nation that wants to take that on.
Imperialism and colonialism didn't end because the European nations had a sudden change in heart and decided that the other races of the world should be allowed to rule themselves, it ended because it was horribly unprofitable.
Even if everything goes right in the "Somali Mandate" (for lack of a better term) it will be horribly expensive for the lead country, and you can bet that nobody will step up to the plate to help them shoulder the costs. No European nation will step up - the stigma of imperialism is just too strong, and none of them are exactly swimming in cash. Because of Afghanistan and Iraq the US doesn't have a dime or a troop to spare, and even if we did the memory of Blackhawk Down would keep us out.
The grim reality is that a Somali Mandate operation would probably go horribly wrong. Any operation would require troop deployments to subdue the warlords. That would put off the Somalis in a big way. People become irrational when it comes to foreign troops on their soil. The troops may be helping them, but they still resent their presence. I remember after Katrina, Castro offered the services of the Cuban army to help the recovery efforts. Can you imagine the outrage if he had just sent the army in on his own accord, without even asking us? Even if all they had done was hand out blankets and food we would have still been irate at their presence.
In Somalia you'd have that outrage, and everybody is armed. It wouldn't take long for a cycle of violence to break out and spiral out of control. Then you'd end up with an Iraq-style quagmire, only without the stubborn insistence on sticking it out.
But getting back to the issue of who would take it up, there are only two nations I can think of that might want to take on such a Somali Mandate: Russia and China. When you think of either of those nations controlling Somalia (and the adjacent shipping lanes), suddenly the mandate idea doesn't seem too appealing. In fact, piracy suddenly seems like a better option.
One easy step the US/international community could take is to recognize Somaliland's independence. Despite zero help from the international community, they've managed to set up a relatively peaceful and democratic state on their own.