Looking both at america AND Europe, I see no reason for optimism this year. Banks still hide the bigger share of their problems, so do insurance companies. Those who agree to accept state'S help, admit only fractions of their problems until they have gotten so much aid that the state canot accept to give them up once they reveal the real ammount of their damages. the Fed's influence is almost nill now, since it has spend the lion's share of it'S reserves. The note printing machines are running at 200% speed, fueling the risk of inflation. And Obama- well, everybody is putting all his trust blindly into the man - like many also put their trust blinldy into GWB, once upon a long time ago. But Obama'S options are very limited, he cannot do magic and miracles, for the most he can only influence the public psychology, but not the hard economic facts. While this ability should not be underrated, it also should not be overrated.
I do not hold my breath for 2010 either. If we would listen to the optimists, the spike of the crisis should have been taken place in late autumn of last year. then they said the middle of 2009. now they say end of 2009. Fine. The crisis itself cares a lot for these timetables, I'm sure. In europe, first essayists have just started to realise the real scale of the downward trend that is to hit europe from summer this year on. Many thought europe was better positioned than the US. We have just started to learn it better.
Considering the plan to spend massively and increase both deficit and debts, like Obama just anounced, I assume any american plans for a war with Iran are officially off the table. i also cannot see him being real when saying he wants to half the deficit until the end of his term.
Even for my friendly-neutral stand towards him, he seems to start leaning a bit too far out of the window.
http://www.businessweek.com/print/ma...2036855338.htm