[Happy Times]

Originally Posted by UnderseaLcpl

That's an interesting thought. What makes you think that Mexico will dissolve into a civil war or that the U.S. would intervene? And if all that happened, what makes you think the U.S. would suffer any more difficulty than financial strain?

Military Report: Mexico, Pakistan at Risk of 'Rapid and Sudden Collapse'

http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,479906,00.html

Joint Operating Environment 2008 report.
http://www.jfcom.mil/newslink/storya...08/JOE2008.pdf

In terms of worst-case scenarios for the Joint Force
and indeed the world, two large and important states bear
consideration for a rapid and sudden collapse: Pakistan and
Mexico.
Some forms of collapse in Pakistan would carry
with it the likelihood of a sustained violent and bloody
civil and sectarian war, an even bigger haven for violent
extremists, and the question of what would happen to its
nuclear weapons. That “perfect storm” of uncertainty alone
might require the engagement of U.S. and coalition forces
into a situation of immense complexity and danger with no
guarantee they could gain control of the weapons and with
the real possibility that a nuclear weapon might be used.
The Mexican possibility may seem less likely, but the
government, its politicians, police, and judicial infrastructure
are all under sustained assault and pressure by criminal gangs
and drug cartels. How that internal conflict turns out over
the next several years will have a major impact on the stability
of the Mexican state. Any descent by Mexico into chaos
would demand an American response based on the serious
implications for homeland security alone.

Military and Intelligence analysts naturally create different scenarios all the time.
But i read about this earlier, cant remember where, anyway the whole scale of the economic crisis wasnt materalised then. Now it has and Mexicos oil revenues and exports plummet, combined with the cartel wars, the scenario of a collapse starts to look very plausible.

The potential risks from Mexicos fall to US are numerous.
Starting from severe economic effects, mass immigration to the possible escalation of a conflict over to the US and its Mexican population.
When you throw in Chavez as a possible player, that has recently consolidated his position and has ambitions over his own borders, you can see the potential for an escalating conflict. Colombia and Bolivia come in to picture at this time and Cuba is a wild card.

Iran has also close relations with Venezuela, has been active in Central America and could play a role also. The borders seem to be open all ready but naturally it would also make it easier for some non goverment sponsored terrorist group to pass in to the US.
Seems that imagination is the limit here.

So as the possible collapse of Mexico seems to be comparable to an Pandoras box, an US military intervention in Mexico would to me make every sense.