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For 10k AOs, only 30% sank with 1 hit. 40% sank with 2 hits, and 30% sank with 3 hits. 100% sank with 4+ hits. Plenty of 10-20k AOs steamed haway from 2-3 hits, however, looking at the damaged data (not sunk). One 14k AO was hit with 6, and got away, though claimed sunk.
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I wrote this a couple pages up, and I just came across some new data. In addition, I read the wrong row on my spreadsheet, and overreported sinkings.
The one ship that took the most to sink, Kyuei Maru, a 10k AO, was listed in Alden as 6 hits for a sinking. There is no way to know the way they were fired. The Japanese Wartime Convoy History, OTOH, breaks this attack to 3 separate attacks of 2 hits each, spread out over the day. 2 hits for damage. 2 more hits for damage. A 5th hit for damage, then a 6th to sink her. That adds some "hit with X fish but survived" numbers to the spreadsheet (damage results are more useful than sinkings, really, since it allows us to look at the % hit with X fish that lived). The revised results are:
The numbers are the % of ships hit with X torps that actually sank:
1 hit: 00% sank
2 hits: 53.9% sank
3 hits: 66.67% sank
4 hits: 60% sank
5 hits: 85.7% sank
6+ hits: 100% sank
No 10k AO in the war sank with one fish.