Part 1: History
I believe to best examine our path to World War III, we should start at the previous world war.
The causes of the Second World War are as simple as they are complicated. In basic terms, it was a story of imperialist ambitions driven by resentment leading to a public feeling of cultural superiority. The two sides of the war were called the Allies and the Axis. I believe the more accurate terminology would be the aggressors, and the defenders.
World War II featured the first and only modern incarnation of violent political evolution. Nazism, facism and imperialism directly challenged both democracy and communism. Emotions were supercharged as every player could clearly see the superiority of their system. By the end of the war, there were clear political winners and losers ... sparking an even more dangerous showdown.
The combined victories of the US, its allies, and the Soviet Union climaxed in a showdown known as the Cold War. This "fight" was far more than just the military build-up that most associate with the era. It was a social and economic showdown as well. Both principle nations raced into space, engineered their economies, and spread their ideologies beyond their borders. Similary, the US endured what is now known as McCarthyism while the USSR consistantly repopulated its gulags.
Even more to the point, the very term "Cold War" became quite misleading. The Soviets and Americans found themselves fighting wars with each other via proxy. The USSR invaded Afghanistan. The USA went into Vietnam (this even after fighting the Chinese in Korea). The Cold War was very hot, indeed.
All the while the world witnessed a dangerous build-up of nuclear arsenals. Both principle nations (USA/USSR) continuously condemned one-another regarding atomic weapons, each blaming the other for their proliferation. Reduction talks occurred frequently, usually used as an excuse for decommissioning obsolete weapons while gaining political stock. (It is notable here that the USSR never officially acknowledged the concept of "nuclear winter").
While the world sat by and watched, both nation's spheres of influence changed rapidly. Cuba, just miles off of the continently United State's shore, became a de facto state of the USSR. The US began deploying nuclear weapons throughout Europe.
Going forward we see the collapse of the Berlin wall as the Soviet economy was crushed under the weight of it's military spending. We see the powder keg that is the middle east (Isreal's formation as a sovereign nation, Iran Contra, etcetera) begin to define its political battle lines, and we see the Western Bloc become the primary ideological influence throughout most of the world.
The notable holdouts to this sudden spread of democracy were China, North Korea, North Vietnam, and Cuba. Cuba's isolation rendered it relatively unimportant in the eyes of the West (no one wanted a repeat of the Bay of Pigs invasion). Vietnam had already drummed up intsnse public scrutiny so it was brushed aside. North Korea simply had its proximity to China as an insurance policy. And finally, the Chinese's strong racial isololationist beliefs were interpretted to have no serious expansionist ambitions.
Prior to the collapse of the Berlin Wall, however, most experts would agree that the world was teetering dangerously close to war. In hindset, I believe that the ability of the superpowers to wage war by proxy prevented an all-out world war, possibly saving millions. I realize this view is debatable, but it really isn't terribly relevant to begin with.
In conclusion, I believe that the world of the post-WWII era and the Cold War era achieved a balance. If there was indeed to be a war, the battle lines would have been clear. I posit that it is that very clarity that prevented World War III from occuring during those eras.
Next: Part 2 - Contributing Factors
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