Election contest questions and comments
 

Any questions or comments about the Subsim 2016 Election contest? Posty them here.

Is this early or what?

Edit: Belay that, I've just seen the other related thread :oops:

Subsim Fantasy Politics 2016 league has begun.

I never thought I'd see the day.

Why does the Iowa vote have such a special meannig? Why not the Hawaii vote or any other US state vote? Does it conflict with the "one man, one vote" rule?

Have patience with me, I am from Europe.

I have the same question :)

Long ago it used to be that the major parties would hold a convention and decide who would be their nominee for President. The public wouldn't be involved until the actual election. Since the mid-20th century both major parties have held Primary Elections, the results of which are combined at the Nominating Convention to select the candidates. This way the people are more involved in the process. Iowa just happens to be the first. It's really no more important than any other Primary Election but it serves as an indicator of the way things are likely to go, and results in some candidates gaining strength and some dropping out.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United...ential_primary

So, which state is considered to be, say, the most representative? Which state comprises the different races, wealth etc., in a manner that a valid estimation of the final outcome, actually, permits itself?

Is it Iowa?

A naive question, maybe, but i'm no US citizen, too.

None. The country is so cosmopolitan these days that every state has its share of every category. I used to drive skiers from our airport to the different resorts, and met a lot of people from all over the country, and the world. In 2002, when Salt Lake City hosted the Winter Olympics, it seemed like I met a lot of people from Atlanta, Georgia, and they all wanted to talk about their Olympics from a few years earlier. The funny part was that very few of them had a Georgia accent, and most of them said they had moved there from somewhere else.

My point is that no matter where you go these days, it always seems to be a mixture of all types of people. Iowa is the State in which both major parties have chosen to start their respective presidential races, and it's not for a particular reason I know of. It just is.

I see. Statistics provide no insight, then. Thanks, anyway.

By the way, i find it interesting when people boast about how the very same event was organized in their place. They show a sense of locality which sometimes makes them either funny or angry. The latter, if you dare to question them.:D

Ok, I think I got it.

Primaries are held in all US states but not at the same time. Iowa is just the first state by historical accident.

Those primaries are more grass-roots democratic compared to the old system where each party held a convention to decide on the nominee for President.

Sounds resonable to me.

So as I understand it, if you as a candidate „drop out“ in Iowa, it is just a bad start and you still can go on until your money runs out or until you realise by the results of other primaries that you lack sufficent support from the party base and give up.

The early Iowa vote then as such has an effect like an election poll, it mobilises voters in the other primaries who feel the Iowa vote went terribly wrong because their candidate did not have good results.

Thank you, Sailor Steve.

It seems to us over here via the press that Trump will win the nomination.
Can you calm any fears by telling us that he doesn't stand a snowball in hells chance of becoming US president.

Nope. Next choice is Cruz. Now what?

You picked a Dem, want to add your Republican pick? :03: Edit you post if you want.

No, he has a good chance of being the next President, it could happen.

PS: you can only pick 1 dropout choice.

Ok, here's where we stand to date:
----- Iowa R --- Iowa D --- post-Iowa dropout
Neal Cruz Sanders OMalley
Mr Quatro Trump Clinton
Jimbuna Clinton
Torplexed Trump Sanders Huckabee
Oberon Carson Clinton OMalley
AVGWarhawk Trump Clinton Carson
Bilge_Rat Cruz Sanders OMalley
Dan D Rubio Sanders Carson
mapuc Trump Clinton
Cybermat47 Trump Sanders
GT182 Carson Sanders Trunp
Aktungbby Trump Clinton

at this point, the odds are about 50:50 that he becomes president:

jan 22, 2016: Clinton - 44%, Trump - 41.3%

jan 1980: Carter - 62%, Reagan - 33%

By Super Tuesday on March 1, when 12 states have their primaries, you will have a pretty good idea who the two nominees will be.