How long until Germany pulls out of the EU?
 

With the economic problems of several EU countries driving the Euro into the ground, with the Greeks complaining about having their pension age bumped up to 63 (when Germany's is 67), with Portugal facing its own debt crisis, how long before the Germans say enough, and pull out of the EU?

I say 5 years, or less.

Probably would be the best thing for the Germans.

Well,
I think without the Euro, Germany would be heading for disaster.
There was a time when Germans wanted to be Europeans more than to be Germans. European unification was an unshakeable goal. That time is long gone, there’s no doubt about it. With German reunification, this country has learned to be proud again.
Bring the bloody Deutschmark back and let France run what’s left of the eurozone. Go ahead and wallow in your smug sense of superiority! But that will be a horribly short-lived high, that’s for sure. After all, what would happen if Germany withdrew from the euro?
A currency appreciation of about 30 per cent over against the residual euro would be the upshot. A 30 per cent revaluation would give French and Italian industries, as well as those of Belgium, the Netherlands and Slovakia, a huge competitive edge on the world markets. The remaining eurozone would experience a massive export boom and, liberated from Germany, could finally grow. And since the French have a more pragmatic approach to consolidating the state budget than the Germans, because they rightly believe growth is more effective than cost-cutting in straightening out the economy, the remaining eurozone would be in for bumper years ahead.
What about the Germans with their new mark? Their stability would be knocked for six. The appreciation of the Deutschmark would make “Made in Germany” too expensive. Exports would collapse: German companies’ sales abroad would decrease as a function of France & Co.’s export increase. It’s that simple. Unemployment would rise, as would the national debt, because more people would be dependent on benefits. Because growth, which currently comes from exports alone, would be stifled. Labour costs here would then really be too high and wage temperance the order of the day. More years of privation would lie ahead.
The monetary union can only relieve internal tensions by working together. A €9 billion loan to Greece is peanuts compared to Germany’s go-it-alone exploits. And there can be no serious discussion of any country at all leaving – let alone being expelled – from the club.
I vote they won't leave.

nice post feuer frei

@ Neil - do you mean out of the EU, or out of the Euro?

Are you guys serious? Can you link to sources and such?

EU is more of a cooperation among european countries and while there definitely are drawbacks of having EU, there would be a long stretch to imagine the economic powerhouse Germany actually quitting.

The Bundesrepublik Dummland claims to be a strong economy. But it is by far the most extremely export-oriented economy in Europe and one of the two or three strongest exporters, in total numbers, on the planet, which makes it in fact extremely depending on others and on events that are beyond it'S influence, but can claim havoc on it's economy, namely state spendings for social issues, and tax income. Germany is a strong exporter, yes - but being that does not translate into "strong economy" in a linear fashion, in my view of things. a strong economy is one that does not depend so much on others, can run autark, and no matter the events in other parts of the world can maintain the soical integrity of it's civil society, both temporary and future generation. For that, you would need more than just purely economic measures, but that is a different topic.

In a way, the drop of the Euro therefore works well for Germany, it makes it easier for Germany to export. But it does nothing to strengthen internal consummation within Germany, for real loans here, like anywhere it seems, are falling. People's "Kaufkraft" is decreasing. And the export-fixiated orientation of the german economy also does not get adressed by this.

This makes it unlikely that German politicians will like to leave the Euro and see it going. Truth is that no other nation in Europe has such a strong economic interest (not a "felt social" but an economic interest!) in the Euro and protecting it, no matter what. When Berlin blocked an agreement on Greece for long time, the French and others simply were horrified. Germany, the once bad player and now - morally obligatory - eternal Mr Nice Guy, is expected to be the EU's gold ass who can be milked whenever the EU wants money for something. Note the sheer arrogance by which the Greek herold two days ago walked around and simply demanded the EU to quickly pay for Greece, and that the Germans will just fall into line, or else! not the smallest clue that he felt guilty over forging statistics and telling lies and ruining an economy and being in debt by Greece'S own fault! He behaved as if he was the savior of Europe and the others where in need of his reliefs. that performance really poissed me, I mean I do not expect Greek ambassadors to fall on their knees, but modesty at least is what could be expected - not such arrogance as if nothing has happened. Most states in europe have arranged themselves happily in this setting of just some few nations paying for the majorityof others, always warning of loss of solidarity and starting to mention the war when the German donkey appears to become stubborn to sh!t any more Euro-ducats. But the hypocrisy finds it'S climax when states like Britain some weeks ago demanded the Germans to even reduce their economic productivity in order to become less competitive and allow other european economies to take over their shares - while at the same time refusing to adapt to the German procedures and methods that allowed germany to pass through the economic crisis so surprisingly well until here (better than any other of the major industrial nations in europe who nevertheless refuse to take the German way as an example for how to improve themselves). This is a demand arguing by not improving the performance of those lagging behind, but by demanding to pull back into collective mediocrity all those who do better than the average - and then calling this "solidarity", and still raising the open hand to demand money.

Fact is that Greece has used cheating, lying and betraying to worm itself into the eurozone. Fact also is that many top european politicians must have known that, years ago - and willed to lket it go by, unchallenged. Fact also is that Greece has a long tradition of running an extremely inefficient economy where the state services serve as a job creation scheme where people possibly could go into early pension after 25 years with the state even taking over their payments for health insurrances, while on the other hand these massively blown up state services increased bureaucracy, thus: possibilities for corruption (and hiding it), and resulted in a bureaucracy extremely oversized, inefficient and killing fincial investements into it since they had no economic fundament by the economy. That the Greece now collapse, is no surprise at all. It was predetermined.

Fact also is that the stability pact and the Maastrict criterions totally, absolutely prohibit any bailout for Greece, or that one european nation in any way compensates for the threat of bancruptcy of any other european state, no matter whether that is done directly or indirectly. This was meant to force nations to manage their economies respinsibly, instead of spending like crazy and expectin gothers to compensate for that, and destabilising the "solid" euro. In Germany, if there is money flowing to Greece, the case will be brought to the German Constitutional High Court, and chances are very good that it will be won, for the currency union then has been turned into a transfer union which effectively means the end of a stabile Euro, abandoning the still legally valid treaties who were designed for preventing right this. That today politicians do not discuss how the goal, the spirit, the meaning of these rules can be secured to be followed despite the crisis, how they can be protected and fulfilled, biut that instead politicians openly discuss how treaties and laws in them can be broken, how the meanin and the goal and the spirit of these treaties can be violated while only causing the smallest public opposition, is a scandal that demonstrates the real inner rotten attitude of the EU. The EU's rules are just not worth the paper they are printed on. we have seen similiar behavior and attitude in the past, namely with the way the Lisbon dictate was enforced onto Europeans.

The problem with the Euro was that it came too early, much too early. Political idiocy and narcissism wanted a display of imagined unity (since politicians love opportunities of symbolism allowing them to wallow their narcissistic egos and boost their popularity by that). But economic demands that must be fulfilled in order to add sense and survivability to a shared currency, were ignored. Reason alltogether was ignored. The needed step before a shared currency is that the economies of the participants are being turned into becoming more compatible with each other, and in general share the same ammount of productivity, since economic differences no longer can be smoothed out by according currency fluctuations of individual currencies on the market. This inevitable precondition was totally, completely ignored, and this is what has brought us into the mess. Also, in the EU it has become a habit in the past 20 years to always rush ahead at full power, no matter what, and any hesitation, any brake for re-evaluating the past decisions and checking whether the course decided matches reality or not, has become a heresy and a reason to brandmark you as an anti-European. The democratically unlegitimised accumulation of centralised power in the EU commission is worrying, the climate of group dynamics pressing single actors to fall into line is troubling, the threat of getting collectively bullied if not obeying group pressure has become a major obstacle for the very freedom itself. We see the emerging of a european superstate without political legitimiation by the people (what makes it kind of a feudal thing), a dicatorship by the bureaucrats that stay even when names in national government posts change. the ammount of regulation, and overregulation being called for by the EU, already is famous, while it's competence in assessing the effected issues is not. The Lisbon dicate gives the commission - or shall I say: the central committee? - the power to make any of it's proposals legally binding for national parliaments. Which puts the meaning of national elections for parliament even more into doubt than it already is. Why voting for a parliament if it has nothing to say in legislation and law-making anymore?

All this must be considered when thinking on Neal's question on Germany and the Euro. The euro, and the state of the union and the economic characteristics of Germany, all are combined for just one issue. yiu cannot separate them, and pick one out while not touching the others.

Greece should be kicked out of the eurozone. It then can fully cooperate with the ICF without any european fears of lost reputation for the euro being that important anymore (the Euro already is damaged, isn'T it), and they could let their currency freely fluctuate again. Also, state bancruptcy is something serious, but not the end of all days. All major european powers in the past 500 years have been there, most of them repeatedly. Almost 100 such cases get listed by historians. A german conservative also mentioned the option to refuse Greece the voting right in certain EU bodies, especially those giving them a way to manipulate decision making affecting the economic and financial relations between Greece and the rest of the EU. Hell, I mean even the statistics they showed again just last week - were trying to manipulate again and were simply forged! EUn statistics office complains heavily about Greece's cheating, manipulating statistics they deliver, saying that Greece'S statistics lie by habit to hide the truth. Such statements being that frank you get rarely only from EU bodies.

Conclusions: most of the money being pumped into Greece will never be payed back - they cannot now, and will not be able to do so in any future scenario that can be forseen now. Aid you give now, is aid being lost. They need the money now to just service the interests of excisting debts, and pay back debts that have had lower interest rates. That means: they fall even deeper into the pit of debts, while not using the money for anything else than that. I do not know where this should lead to, it just delays the inevitable. And this is what makes any payment of German tax moneys - for which German owners (that's what taxpayers are: they are the owner of the state's taxes) have to work more years in a life than the Greeks - an embezzlement of public tax moneys, and the attempt to save the damaged reputation of the Euro - just an act to polish a surface behind which the substance already is rotten.

So, I think the Euro sooner or later will fail its current format, and I even do hope so although I am aware of the consequences for Germany, for two reasons. First, the current state of things is not a healthy one, and the mixture of participants is not serving constructive interests. And second: the fall of the Euro could possibly deliver a blow to the EU itself, which - if it is crushing enough to do enough damage to enforce major course corrections - can even enforce reductions in the EU's power, which I would absolutely welcome, even if the price for getting these two things is a phase of chaos that could throw us into troubled waters for some time. But I think it is better to take that chance for getting a healthier, more realistic, more meaningful europe, than to stay on the current course - and know that we are doomed to fail for sure. We brought us into this mess, so we cannot expect to get out of it again without suffering scratches and bruises. What we currently are being trapped in is called "the dilemma of lost investements" in social sciences. It means that wrongs ways get agreed on to be followed any longer, because correcting them and adapting to reality checks would reveal past investements as "being lost" and would label past methods as having been wrong - so one agrees to carry on like usual instead, although this is what fulfills the prophecy.

In the end, Greece is just like all the West, an exemplary precedent, since all western nations invest into increasing bureeaucracy, are being economically challenged by those they have risen in past decades to become that competitive, and now getting eaten up from within by an explosion of social spendings, driven by the changing age-structure of populations, decreasing population levels, and importing foreigners who for the most are social low class insteadof specialists and cost the social system more than they can contribute to it. the latter is politically incorrect to say, but even official statistics prove this by now, black on white.

Collapse is pre-programmed. Greece just happens to fall first. The lesson of the story by the end of the day? Nations, do not spend more money than your economies first have produced. don't borrow, don't live on tick from one generation to the next.

I am sure that no nation will listen. The shine must shine on, you know.

P.S. "Probably never". But one never knows for sure, sometimes miracles happen. Or accidents.

Not going to happen anytime soon. Germany will be part of the EU as long as the union exists.

Second that.

And what about greece... 8.5 billion Euro´s from germany??? This is peanuts. :yawn:

We´ve spend over 125 billions to "system relevant" banksters, Opel... and god knows who´s next.
As Skybird said... the shine must shine on :sunny:


"probably never"

The interesting conundrum is that Greece does not appear prepared to accept the austerity measures demanded of it, particularly since unemployment is projected to reach 20% by the end of 2010 before budget cuts have an impact.
German citizens were given a pledge by their leaders in the 1990s that loss of the D-Mark would not lead to monetary disorder, or leave them liable for Club Med debt. That is the sacred contract of EMU.
Other eurozone members, aware that a German exit would destroy the value of the euro, would be willing to make significant concessions to keep Germany inside. Such game-theoretic jockeying increases the chance that a German politician would want to threaten such a trick.

The way the media and politicians are covering the Greek bailout, is as if it actually has happened. All that is in place is a framework under which conditions must be met for it to go ahead. The most important condition is that all Euro members have to agree to it, and it is not 100% certain that Germany will. The bailout is extremely unpopular in Germany and there is an important state election in North Rhein Westfalia to contend as well.

I believe that Germany should veto the bailout, as it is a ridiculously short sighted plan, that will encourage the other member states that are in a self-made financial mess to not sort out their finances. If Greece is bailed out it will be the beginning of the end for the Euro.

The Germans no longer accept being required to be the EU’s paymasters to atone for their Nazi past. There is also an increase in euroscepticism in German public opinion. While Germany introduced austerity measures and trimmed down its welfare system, countries such as Greece refused to do so, relying on the fact that the EU (read: Germany) would bail them out when they got in trouble in order to save the euro.

Stand united, Deutschland!

Damn it this is a serious thread, I wanted to make a joke about pulling out. :88)

Deadly serious, Rilder :O:

I also read that their pension system gives 80% of their monthly wage.:dead:


Portugal, Spain, Ireland and Italy are likely to follow Greece if this help package fails.

If that happens then we could see not only the monetary union breaking but the whole EU.

As much as people hate the EU at present form the unknowns from everything falling are such that i dont see any member bailing out just yet.

Im also pissed about the way these countries have handled their affairs.

Finland also has had role in the EU of paying others peoples lunch and i feel for Germany.
They are the core of the union in more ways than just geographically.

Even before the "North" and "West" have payed for the "South" and recently the "East".
The main reason behind this shouldnt be forgotten, the ever important will to exist peacefully in this small continent together.

But something has to change in the way this is achieved!
Not by these undemocratic processes the new ruling class, the Eurocrats, have created for us.:nope:
The present path could well lead to secessions and conflicts of unknown results.

Combined with this economic crisis the other issues like failed immigration and polarization of societies gives reason for real concern over the future of Europe.

I wish the whole Euro/EU thing would be reset. But I don't think this is going to happen.
To me it seems as if it is already decided to bail Greece out. Portugal and Italy are likely to be next then. I actually wonder how we can bail countries out if we (Germany) are making debts left and right ourselves?
The bottle is empty, so how are we supposed to give others something to drink?
But in "good" old tradition Germany will bend over and do what it's demanded to do....still suffering from the "bad boy" syndrome.:dead:
That's also why I don't see Germany leaving the EU any time soon.


PS to Skybird's post:
Kaufkraft = Buying Power

Whether or not Germany would pull out of the E.U. I cannot say, but I think the E.U. would benefit greatly from a more pro-German agenda. Such an agenda would have to adopted gradually, with smaller nationalities or regions adopting German policy as a test-bed. Austria or the Sudetenland would probably be a good place to start. After that, a nation like, say, the Czech Republic might be persuaded to get on board.

Some larger nations might present more of a problem. Poland, for instance, would probably have reservations about jumping on ze Bundes-wagon that might necessitate creative efforts to overcome political resistance. Fortunately, there is a simple, final, solution if that is the case. German electrical engineers could be dispatched to revamp Poland's electrical system, resulting in an overload of all their light-bulbs. Then German administration can move in quite easily, as most of the Poles will be too busy rotating ladders to think about EU policy. I call it the polits-krieg.

If that pans out, the E.U. can then begin adopting the policy on a more widespread scale. Small but progressive nations like Belgium or the Netherlands would likely be the first to willingly accept this model of reform. Europe's other major continental power, France, would likely also surrender to reason and join up.

Ultimately, I think everyone but maybe the UK would adopt the German-centric agenda, but that's okay because the UK has always recieved large amounts of high-quality German exports whenever Germany demonstrates economic dominance.

Using this plan, I think Germany could build an E.U. that would last a thousand years.

waaaaaaaaait...a minute....

HunterICX