Covert Escalation in Iran
 

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...65580520080629

Not surprising. This part did surprise me, however:

Would Brag like to chime in? :)


PD

Interesting stuff. I hope it "works out" and doesn't cause the whole situation to escalate.

I hope it doesn't. If the operations start failing, maybe he'll give up and we can quit pestering one another to give the Middle-Easterners some PEACE!:-?

Not surprising at all. Things like this are running since the mid-80s - tells you something about the chances of "regime change". And if they put their trust into the jundallah, by far no unknown variable in Iran, then you cannot escape shaking your head in despair about this new american idiocy - don't they never learn from their mistakes? Have they forgotten how the CIA and the Pakistani created the Taleban during the Soviet occupation, sending them to fight the Russians? Look at the Taleban now.

Meaning it's based on unidentified "government sources" and not necessarily actual people...

This is most interesting material you have provided PD ...

Please tell us more ... we get so little news where we live.

http://img.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/200...01_228x461.jpg

Man who spied for Israel to be executed:
http://www.reuters.com/article/world...080630?sp=true

PD

I am not surprised that Israel has agents in Iran. I would be shocked if they didn't.

They are usually smart enough not to get caught though.

"As always if you are caught or killed, the Secretary will disavow all knowledge of your operation"

What scares me the most is Iran's declining population. Child birth out there used to be almost 7 per woman. This is how they did the mass suicide attacks against Iraq forcing Saddam to resort to gas to stop them, lest he be over-run. Current child birth rate is 1.7 per woman - not enough to maintain the current population.

This gives rise to Iran's agressive tendencies as of late. Are they rattling sabre's in an act prior to war? Iran has the man power to mount an offensive in the gulf if it wants to. In the future, it is clear that they will be of limited capacity due to its aging population - faster than any other western country including Europe!

Just some thoughts. I expect soemthing out of them soon.

-S

$hit happens, I suppose.

And I just finished reading this blog article:
http://informationdissemination.blog...an-option.html

Interesting highlight:
I can't say what, but I do think something will happen in the next few months. All parties have been making a fair amount of noise.

PD

Actually it is the rate of population growth that is declining, not the population.

According to the US Census Bureau: Iran's current population is about 72 million. Iran's rate of population growth will continue to slow until it stabilizes above 90 million by 2050. More than two-thirds of the population is under the age of 30. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iran#Demography)

So I don't think Iran is in any population problem (other than over population). Nor is the population considered aging. If anything the population is "under aged" which accounts for the increased disagreement with the conservative government.

As the old hardliners start dying off, the new generation will start filling the positions. Given enough time and no foreign interference Iran might just turn around by itself.

According to one of my professors (who is Iranian), other than a small radical population of college students and the hardliners, a large section of the population really does not have animosity toward the US. Like in the US, it is only the extremists that get the press it seems.

Strategically, this is not the time to attack Iran as it would only serve to codify the hardliner's policy in the minds of the citizens.

In the eight parliamentary elections since the revolution more and more moderates are being elected to office. Good changes are coming to the Republic... but slowly... but they are coming. In the amendment to the Iranian Constitution in 1989 even the religious requirements for the Supreme Leader were removed as the republic is readjusting the balance between religious and secular considerations.

You are looking at old data man. Wake up to the new data (United Nations - source):

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_East/IK13Ak01.html

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Middle_.../spengdem1.gif

-S

be interested in finding out what they are basing their models on. That is one of the problems with modeling population that far out. :)

While it is true that there has been a population decrease of about 3 million from 2007 to 2008, and the birth rate is declining, the birth rate is between 16 and 17/1000 and the death rate is between 5.6 and 5.7/1000. The good news is that the infant mortality rate is decreasing from a high in 2003. (indexmundi.com)

They are still in the first generation since the Iran/Iraq war. It will take more than one generation to stabilize the population. But one can never tell about the future. Things change.

Yep. Even read a couple places Iran is digging graves near their borders for the enemy troops they plan on killing. Something like 300,000 of them.

I think it more likely the Bush/Cheny will drag us into it somehow before the end of term. There were a few Admirals that resigned a short while back after being briefed by Bush, that's a red flag. When your top level commanders think your nuts, time to take a step back. Remember back when the military leaders were the warmongers and the civilian government had to hold them back?

I think they should just take all of the leaders of these countries who want the war, put them and their families in a big cornfield in Kansas, give them all knives and guns, and ask them to fight the war on behalf of the people. I bet the bastards would come out of the field with a peace treaty.

Simple - births vs. deaths vs. women. No weird models. Iran is in a world of hurt from a future speaking perspective.

These numbers have a direct correlation to economy numbers as well, so that will fall with it.

-S

PS. This says it best: