The other side of high oil prices
 

I always thought that the end of cheap energy would mean the end of industry relocalization in search of lower costs. IMHO current Asian economic boom can be greatly endangered by rising transportation prices, as their customers are mainly very far away. :hmm:

Same with alternative energy (wind, solar, etc). they now become competitive, not becasue they fall in pricing, but oil is exploding.

Negative overall effect is that all and everything is becoming more expensive, of course - and rises in wages (at least in germany) cannot compensate for that, the rises of past years got more than eaten up by accelerating inflation alone.

due to the inner dynamic of the vicious circle around economica and financial development, I fear that inflation will become one of the top threats in the medium future. It already is high enough to mark a painful sting over here, both for companies and private households. German Federal Bank also warns of even higher inflation in the forseeable future. that the American Fed and the European ECB are totally antagonistic in inflation control, the Fed not caring much about it and even speeding it up by it's measures while the ECB regarding control of inflation it's primary duty, does not really help.

Clean up your ship and tighten everything that is loose - we are sailing into very heavy weather over the next decade(s).

But there will be long term savings as there is a reduction in transport cost due to less shipping as well as alternative energy getting cheaper to produce due to increases in scale driving down costs

I believe it when I see it.

check the market for solar panels. germany until short time ago was world market leader, and 50% of globalm solar panels produced where installed on germsn roofs. But that was only possible in low-sun-country Germany by massively paying subsidies and the state guaranteeing high payment for every electricty private households produces this way - for the next 20 years, or longer. But major shares of the german production has been shifted to Asia, Now Chine is market leader, folowed by Japan - and the german subsidies for prudction and installation go directly to these countries.

Subsidies for a foreign country, eh - pardon?

wothout these billion-high subsidies, the solar panel market, due to the important role Germany plays in that, would collapse, becasue over-capacities have been raised by profiteers that the german state is dilletantic enough to pay finacial compensation and endlessly pump money into it. All global overproduction is being send to - germany, and is being compensated for by the german taxpayer.

On the other hand, banks have started to offer finacial investement models and funds that for their profitability calculation depend on the assumption that in the forseeable future the oil price will have risen to 500$. go figure.

Heavy industry nevertheless still tries to buy time, and spends millions and hundreds of millions inbto campaigns tryint to prevent chnages and trying to raise doubts that a.) climate chnage is a reality and b.) peak oil is near or has been reached. I cannot see any determined effort anywhere in any country to seriously start to change and adapt, while additonally our politicians try to sell it to us that we can adapt to the future without needing to fix (and that means: to lower) our excessive living standard. but the problems we have come from more and more people wanting and reaching it to live by these high living standard. but good ol' mother Earth does not play ball with that. Infantile surrogate projects are hectically presented instead of solid action, like forbidding normal light bulbs in the near future, to save energy and to reduce the ammont of CO2. Do you know how much CO2 would save when changing all light bulbs in the republic for energy saving bulbs? It has been calculated: less than half of the yearly emissions of one coal power plant of german standard. But that should save the future!? Germany has close to 40 coal power plants running - and has additonal 26 more in planning phase or under construction!

This kind of alternative energy currently is profitable, but note that this is not becasue it fell in price, but becasue oil rose in pricing. I cannot see the pricing of transportation and energy, and living costs of the future falling - I expect them stagnating at best, more realistic expectation is to see them climb. Also, these prices are subject to the effects of inflation, and that problems has risen its ugly head over the past years and refused to lower it again. Inflation is accelerated by stockmarket speculation, artifical reduction of availability of goods, printing money like crazy like the Fed does, and high national debts - all this a couple of more reasons to be pessimistic.

Econo0mic, endless growth is regarded as the ultima ratio to cure these and other problems. But in fact this madness is fostering and spreading the demand to keep or even increase our living standards, and is bringing more and more people on the globe to share in that way of life. Thus such "unlimited economic growth" is not the cure but the cause of our problems. It is a suicide stategy. We need to massively lower our living standards. But nobody wants that, everybody starts yelling when being told, and no politicians wanting to continue in office will ever dare to say that. So... bit-by-bit-exitus as logical consequence.

I'm sure I just made myself a lot of new friends. :roll:

Well, the price of renewables will fall as their market share increases. When more people are using renewable energy such as wind/solar, it becomes more profitable to invest in more efficient generation systems, just like any tech sector.

That's great if it will bring more jobs back to the US. Mexico could use the extra money.

Potential future problem being..........poverty brings civil unrest quite easily in some of these countries.

How do the so called wealthier nations help them then ? :hmm:

100% agree. No unlimited growth is possible in a limited world. :down:

The only thing that will keep prices from going higher will be the moment when people can no longer pay them. We are on the edge of the biggest crisis the world has ever seen, caused by the mad tendency to rush forward as a solution to all problems. There isn't enough in the world for everyone to live by the same standards that europeans and americans currently do. And if it were right now, the continuous growth of population will eat that in some years. Period.

Every home should have a nuclear reactor. I miss you Rickover....:dead: