SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - "Kosovo Independence on February 17th"

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080210/...er_over_kosovo

MOSCOW - Russia may not come to outright blows with the West over Kosovo, but independence for the province seems sure to deepen the Cold War-style chill settling over Europe.
Detaching Kosovo from Serbia will likely aggravate disputes over a host of sensitive security issues ranging from missile defense to NATO membership for the former Soviet republics of Georgia and Ukraine.

"There are several different issues coming together — that's what makes it so dangerous," said Anatol Lieven, a Russia expert who is a professor at King's College London and a senior fellow of the New America Foundation in Washington.

Kosovo is sacred to Serbs, who call it the cradle of their statehood and religion. The province also strikes a chord in the President Vladimir Putin's Kremlin — for reasons beyond the roots Russia shares with Slavic, Orthodox Christian Serbia.

Kosovo stands as a symbol of Russia's weakness in the post-Soviet era. Despite its fury over the 1999 NATO bombing of Serbia — denounced by Boris Yeltsin as a return to the "Stone Age" — Moscow recognized a peace deal that put the mostly ethnic Albanian province under the control of the U.N. and the Western alliance.
Putin has built his popularity on restoring Russian pride, pushing to recapture its global clout and showing increasing assertiveness toward the West. That means acquiescence is off the table.

"The issue is not so much Kosovo itself but Russia's grandeur," said Yevgeny Volk, head of the Heritage Foundation's Moscow office.
Speculation that Russia would strike a compromise with the West was shattered last August when Moscow torpedoed a plan for supervised independence by threatening a U.N. Security Council veto.

"Kosovo has become a very successful way to show that Russia has an opinion and does not intend to change it to accommodate anyone," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of Russia in Global Affairs magazine. "It's really not support for Serbia, but support for principles."

An independence declaration could come as early as this week, and Moscow says it has developed a secret plan for responding to it :hmm:. Meanwhile, Russians are warning that Western recognition will set a dangerous precedent, legitimizing independence claims from separatists across Europe — Scots, Basques, Turkish Cypriots — and beyond. A report on a government-supported English-language Russian satellite TV channel even threw Vermont secessionists into the mix.

More seriously, Moscow has implied that it could hit back by recognizing the independence claims of Abkhazia and South Ossetia — two Russian-supported provinces in Georgia, whose pro-Western government plays a key role in the struggle for influence pitting Russia against the U.S. and European Union.
Russian hawks might rejoice, but for the pragmatic Putin, the pros are probably outweighed by the cons — at least for now. The move might mean a war with Georgia, a meltdown of relations with the West, and a boost for separatists inside Russia.

"I don't think this is the issue on which Russia will fully confront the West," said Alexander Rahr, director of the Russia/Eurasia Program at the German Council on Foreign Relations. "They have a huge stake in other regions, and there are lots of conflicts to come."
Russia will probably hold back, saving its strength for disputes over U.S. missile-defense plans in eastern Europe and efforts by Georgia and Ukraine to win NATO membership — a far more serious concern for the Kremlin than distant Kosovo.
In the short run, its response will probably be limited to steps such as blocking U.N. recognition of Kosovo, while portraying itself as a protector of international law and the United States as a reckless global bully.

"As to what it will do, I don't think it'll actually do very much," Lieven said.
Last month, Russia's new NATO envoy dismissed speculation that Moscow might send peacekeeping troops to Kosovo.

Putin seems less interested in Serbia as a potential military ally than as an outpost of Russia's growing European energy empire. Kremlin support on Kosovo has already helped it land deals for a gas pipeline and control of Serbia's state oil company, furthering its efforts to increase Europe's dependence on Russia for energy supplies and distribution.

"In a way, Russia has already gotten what it wants — a big footprint in the energy situation in the Balkans," said Rahr.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080210/...ia_kosovo_dc_3

Kosovo is expected to declare independence from Serbia next Sunday, but a top Russian official warned that Europe could open a "Pandora's box" if it recognized the move over Belgrade's objections. :hmm:

"It will all be done by Sunday," a senior political source told Reuters, saying Pristina would invite the European Union to send in a planned supervisory mission and NATO to stay on at the head of a peacekeeping force.

The source denied speculation that it would be a two-stage process, with a statement of intent next weekend and an actual declaration in March.
Kosovo hopes for quick recognition from the United States and from the EU, whose foreign ministers meet on Monday February 18, but Russia is dead set against.
"If it comes to a unilateral recognition of Kosovo, that would be a precedent," First Deputy Prime Minister Sergei Ivanov said at a conference in Munich.
"That would definitely be beyond international law, and it would be something close to opening a Pandora's box," he said, meaning it could lead to unpredictable outcomes.
He said Russia would not, however, respond tit-for-tat by immediately recognizing independence bids by two Georgian breakaway provinces it supports.

SERB SECESSION
Kosovo's minority Serbs are also planning a virtual secession of their own, with proposals to establish an "assembly" next Saturday in the Serb-dominated Mitrovica region of Kosovo's north, the Kosovo Albanian daily Zeri reported.
It said the assembly was part of a Serb scheme to "create a separate political and territorial entity with special links to Serbia."

Serbia recently opened a government office to oversee public services in Mitrovica , saying it would "intensify" Belgrade's parallel network of services for Serbs. The United Nations, which has administered Kosovo since Serb forces were expelled by NATO in 1999, called it a "provocative act."
"Everything must be done for (Kosovo) Serbs to remain on their land and to live safely as citizens of Serbia after an eventual unilateral declaration of independence," Serbia's Ministry for Kosovo said in a statement on Friday.
Analysts say Serbia, if it can't keep Kosovo, wants to divide it, keeping control of the north, where it already provides health, education and administrative services for Serbs.
Kosovo's independence move was delayed three times in the past year, in deference to Serb-ally Russia's insistence on continuing talks in search of an elusive compromise, and because of its explosive impact on Serbian politics.

PRELUDE TO CHAOS
Despite two elections -- one general, one presidential --, Serbia is still deeply split. Nationalists are determined to halt talks on closer ties with the EU if it goes ahead with recognition. Pro-Western parties say the bid for EU membership must be the country's priority.

The ruling coalition is on the verge of collapse.
Parliament speaker Oliver Dulic told the daily Vecernje Novosti on Sunday that an early parliamentary election was one of the options to resolve the crisis, which will be discussed by pro-EU President Boris Tadic and nationalist Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica later this week.

If Kostunica kept turning to hardline nationalist opposition parties to support his unbending position on Kosovo, the coalition would fall, Dulic added.
Labor Minister Rasim Ljajic said everything in Serbia "had ground to a halt," adding: "This is a prelude to chaos." (no really??!!! :roll:)
well, on feb 17 SHTF, i wonder what Russia will do:hmm:, they better not screw us over:shifty:, US is already bogged down in Iraq and Persian Gulf, by the looks of it they dont have the resources to bomb serbia (again.:roll:). EU doesnt dare clash swords with Russia. most likely it will be a small proxy war.. shouldnt erupt into anything serious.. :dead::-?