Jim this thread becomes more and more Ukraine related so maybe a merge with my other thread Ukraine once more-would be a good thing.

Your decision

Markus

Threads merged.

Thank you.

I've got more fear than hope when it comes to war Vs peace in Ukraine.

If Putin decide to invade, it will most likely happens after their New Years eve.

Markus

That's a pretty safe bet seeing as how it's NYE already Markus! Really putting yourself out on a limb with the prognostications eh? :):03:

They celebrate two NYE the new one 31th of December and their old 13th of Jan. It's after the latter I fear Putin will invade.

But I have also hope that Putin will see it leads to nothing if his forces invade Ukraine.

Markus

:up:

Why I fear an invasion of Ukraine or part of it is What type of response NATO and EU will come up with.

And it ain't military response-It will be a massive economical answer=Sanction/boykot

Has a country stopped it's military operation after threat of economical sanction or boykot. Here I'm thinking on Iraq.

So now you know why I fear it.

Edit
forgot to mention something.
EU and NATO in Europe is weak and so is the Biden administration-The American military is very strong-but with a weak administration in the White house-it's weak.
AND Putin know this.
End edit

Markus

Now it becomes clear what Putin wants.



https://www-dw-com.translate.goog/de...en&_x_tr_hl=de

So It looks like I'm right on spot when I wrote in my last comment

"EU and NATO in Europe is weak and so is the Biden administration-The American military is very strong-but with a weak administration in the White house-it's weak.
AND Putin know this."

Markus

Yeah but no more mean tweets from the White House. That's something!

^ that's indeed better.

After all it all boils down on declarations, promises and treaties.
The unification of Germany was agreed to Russia NATO would hold back expanding eastward. As we all know the falldown of the russian soviet state was used to do exactly that, breaking the promise.
I do not like it, but Russia/Putin has a point.

If anyone in the west decides to make Ukraine a Nato member Putin will rather invade it first.
If the west holds back letting former soviet buffer states become NATO members there is no reason for an invasion, for Russia.
Understandable.
So why not guarantee to not let Ukraine become a NATO member?

Ukraine shall not become a NATO member. But they need some type of support and I'm not talking about morally support, as the Danish minister of Defence said Denmark would give Ukraine if Russia attack them.

Europe and NATO need to show Putin an united and strong togetherness in military terms. I'm convince that showing him this will make him think 3,4,5 times before giving the marsh order.

(Could be wrong though-ain't no expert on Russian mentality)

Markus

So why not publicly declare that Ukraine will not become a NATO member?
This is the guarantee Putin wants he has publicly and more than once said this.

If western leaders want to appear united and strong and they cannot even make that statement, there is no further need for discussion.

Which Biden should do-Call Putin and promise him, that Ukraine will not become a member in decades.

The problem here is-There is politicians in other NATO countries who want Ukraine to become a member of NATO(I'm convince there is)

You could say NATO is weak in its construction, when it face an opponent as strong as NATO is.

HA I know the solution.
Why not let Russia become a member of NATO ??-Seriously I mean it.

Markus

So what you and others say it is not Russia's fault?

We have to keep in mind that Gorbatchev and the USSR are no more, so one (the west) could argue any promise or treaty made in 1989 is null and void.
German chancellor Kohl who also promised that the unification of Germany would not lead to an eastern expanse of NATO, is no more.
So all promises or such ever given can only apply to one leadership interval?

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...raine-analysis


This is Putin's own writing, i take it at least some western leaders should thoroughly read it. It is not that Putin tries to hide anything:

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/66181