SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - Probability is relative

This is a "reprint" from a post I made at the SBP forum.

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To get hit by a shot not aimed at you, is unlikely. It is even more unlikely
if the shooter even cannot see you, and you are hidden behind an obstacle.
And almost impossible it is if the shooter is 5.5 kilometers away from you.
Right?

Right.

You better think twice.

This story is from my latest go with Volcano's mission "Deliberate Assault
03". I have slightly modified it for personal use, in the main replaced the
Leo2A4 with the Leo2A5DK, since it is the tank I use almost exclusively,
and thus I am familiar with it.

I had sent forward some recce elements and just had started to move the
first tank platoon, to engage tanks on the hill west of the scouts. The
formation was in line, and close. The leading Leopard had just taken out a
tank, and started to engage the second T-72. The second shot looked like
this:

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/3482/52423174.jpg

http://img158.imageshack.us/img158/1900/39924138.jpg

Note that the screenshot did not catch the flashing red tank at the outer left end of the shooting line.
As you see, the shot passes right over the tank I aimed at, roughly 3.5 km away - and then struck the tank another 2 km behind that
target, damaging it! Even more, from the shooter's position the far away tank that got finally hit, was bnot to be seen, it was fully
covered by the hill with the target tank 2 km in front of it.

This is what it approximately looked like from the shooter's position, it is
outside view from the tank's position, maximum magnification and obviously
thermals on. - The tank you see is the original target at 3.5 km that I aimed at - the tank at 5.5 km behind that got finally hit
is completely invisible and covered by the hill. In fact I was not even aware of it's presence.

http://img182.imageshack.us/img182/4179/22265664.jpg

The unsuspecting target:

http://img515.imageshack.us/img515/5227/82642079.jpg

And the proud hero:

http://img520.imageshack.us/img520/6679/77617787.jpg

Lesson learned: never shoot your gun straight into the air during festivals.
Chances are that... well...