Recession nearing an end
 

According to the news. We have been experiencing a recession for the better part of ten months now (approximate)

the average life span of a recession... 14 months.

time to buy stocks at rock bottom prices.

Because i can almost promise you - by the end of the fiscal year 2009 to the middle of the fiscal year 2010 the DJI is going to balloon up to about 12,700 or higher.

We are probably going to see a record high on the DJI numbers within the next 3 years.

i'll be bookmarking this thread so next year i can whip it out and say "told ya so"

Hopefully.

But there are still massive amounts of bad debt out there. And the government's current plan to cover the bad debt up with TARPS and government sponsored debt just doesn't make any sense.

http://market-ticker.org/archives/67...e-Markets.html

PD

I wouldn't be so sure about it being over in a few more months. Things change...

I've kept a careful track of a few stocks on the ASX, the aussie stock exchange, and put down a hypothetical $5k on 2 of them when I thought they'd pretty much hit the low. That was roughly 3 weeks ago.

Now, if I'd bothered to actually put real money down, one of them is up 40%, the other is up 35%.

I would be a happy man :)

As for the wider world, in my opinion the market needs to be reset. Everything has hit unsustainable highs. prices need to get back to reasonable levels, I'm talking houses that are only 3 or 4 times and avg annual wage, not 10x like it is here now. earning 500,000 is bloody stupid if you sit on your arse. People got too greedy, and now its time to have cutbacks. but it neds to be on everything

This is no normal recession, and there even is a high danger for deflation.

When this is over, the game will no longer be played by the old rules.

Stay away from junk. invest in blue chips

What makes you think this recession resembles an average recession?

The problem is the game wasn't played by the old rules to begin with!:nope: One of the most obvious things that needs to be addressed is the way credit is delt out and to whom. The fact that there was so many sub prme loans, dodgy trades and high risk investments, shows that there needs to be better risk assesment done as well as better guide lines for theose who make the decisions.

Or don't go into the casino to begin with???:hmm:

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenRivet
the average life span of a recession... 14 months.



Agreee, the average may be blown out by this one!:-?

its funny to me that people allow themselves to be guided around by their noses by people who preach a 'sky is falling mentality'.

Im glad we are in a recession.

these 'fat cats' that caused it should be sent to prison.

and yes i agree that it is because the "game" was not played by the rules to begin with.

this will all be over sooner than we think.

the stock market is a funny thing, she is a fickle bitch - most stock market players would be better off just going to vegas with that money.

i dont have much of an opinion on the issue, but i found it encouraging that a news radio program with some economic analyst guest was spouting off about how the average recession lasts about 14 months and that worst case scenario this thing lasts twice that long... so within the next 1 to 3 years we will be looking at record highs again.

Are you currently on the planet Mars when posting this?

How do you "unload" the 2 million homes [and growing] in or about to enter foreclosure and say everthing will be OK in 36 months in your economic model?

Because, on average, recessions are average recessions.

Those mortgage companies will have to eat it.

They didnt "lend responsibly." and thats all there is to it.

Perhaps our great socialist leader Obama can give the homes away?;)

oh wait... the mortgage companies already tried that.

Maybe they can send them here to Sydney, as we still have a shortage of housing (the rental maket is bad, around 1% of all rental properties are avalible:88)) and a government not releasing land or redeveloping exisiting areas to cope with the population increase that has happened and is expected to continue.

At least I've got my own place and my wife and I can afford the repayments without trouble.:)

Only on the gold market.

-S

The problem is those invested in mortgage securities goes far beyond mortgage companies.

And many of the lenders aren't "eating" it. They are being saved (poorly) at taxpayer cost by a government arm headed by a man who lobbied both Congress and the SEC to relax financial industry regulation while he headed an investment bank.

PD

LOL i found this thread in my bookmarked pages

So lets review then after one year.

When i made this post, the DJI was on its way down and dropping fast. The DJI Average was sitting right at 8,635.41 when this post was made on December 2, 2008. pessimists and negativity were everywhere... bad news poured in on all fronts.

It would continue to tumble through the next 4 months... bottoming out in early March 2009 at just over 6,500!

However... what we have seen since is an upward trend however slight.

the Dow closed on December 31st sits at 10,428

I'm no expert, but i cant see any reason looming that would prevent this slow and steady climb from continuing in the near future.

There may be a major recession on, but on the whole this is a normal thing... excrement happens in the free market economy.

But... as a nation we have strong local economies. For example... my home town here in east texas has numerous construction sites, new businesses are popping up, and virtually NO unused office or retail space and the local economy is quite strong.

the same happened to this area and many other areas during the "great depression"... the local economy in several instances stood on substantially stronger footing than the national economy.

anyhow... my .02 worth

:D

It's been a pretty bad decade overall for people who claim that the market economy system will bring wealth to everyone. Personally I wouldn't have known that a mere 20 years after the collapse of the Soviet system there'd be this much trouble with the system of the 'west'.

I think the recession is fading too, but I have no way of knowing it. I am happy my Ford stock hit $10 a share last week, up from the $1.49 I paid for it in Nov 2008... now comes the decision to hold or sell :timeout: Always a challenge to the investor who readily admits he does not know what he is doing. :haha: I don't really have the money until I sell.

Charts!

It looks like Texas is mirroring the U.S. as a whole in employment growth:

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/up...ges/0908c1.gif

The unemployment rate in Texas is well behind that of the U.S. as a whole. It remains to be seen if this downtick will be sustained - I believe it will

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/up...ges/0908c2.gif

There continues to be an increase in demand of single family homes, as evidenced by the 5 month moving average of building permits:

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/up...ges/0908c3.gif

We are still not completely out of the woods yet, as delinquencies and foreclosures skyrocket. I believe this is strongly correlated to the fact that people have been out of work for a long time - folks have eaten through their savings and investments in order to stay in the house and now are running out.

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/up...ges/0908c5.gif

other countries in the world are experiencing a recovery, added to the weak dollar, this is stimulating export demand

http://www.dallasfed.org/research/up...ges/0908c6.gif

Things are still in the crapper here and look to be that way for a while yet.