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America = doomed (merged many times)

General Patreus short time ago admitted that the afghanistan war is likely to become the longest war in the history of the US. With Pakistan being on the brink of becoming a no longer functioning state anymore, the region promises to become the most difficult and threatening problem of american foreign policy. And I would not rule out at all that the future will bring major military engagement not only on the soil of Pakistan but against Pakistan itself. With recent terror strike taking place inside pakistan, foreign investors start to avoid the country. On the other hand, China seem to be willing to take over their role and pay for the ticket of enjoyng a place in the first row to observe how the west is struggling and looses ressources whose absence in other fields make Chinese soft powerpolitics easier to succeed.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...584616,00.html

Quote:

At almost the same time, a diplomatic briefing between the British ambassador in Kabul, a man known for his directness, and a French diplomat was leaked. Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles said the current situation in Afghanistan was "bad; the security situation is getting worse -- so is corruption -- and the government (of President Hamid Karzai) has lost all trust." The American strategy, he said, "is doomed to fail."

Internally, US intelligence agents have arrived at a similar assessment. In the most thorough analysis of the war in Afghanistan to date, the National Intelligence Estimate, which is to be released after the US presidential election in November, the 16 US intelligence services involved write that Afghanistan is in a dangerous "downward spiral." The report mentions mounting violence and a government consumed by corruption and barely capable of resisting the Taliban uprising. Last Thursday Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff of the US Armed Forces, spoke of a similarly poor outlook when he predicted that the situation would become even worse next year.

Trapped in the Afghan maze.

Some days ago it was reported that NATO troops now should engage in supressing and battling the farming of poppy. If that becomes true and the loss of money will be felt by the big names in business (and that are mostly not the Taleban anymore, but "private" warlords), tis will become real fun, for these people do not need to just accept the destruction of their income basis, and suffient numbers of those who so far kept out of taking sides in the fighting will then chose sides and make the change a reality in the battles on the ground that NATO will bring to struggling even more. Add to that the hidh level of corruption within the Karzai government, which had been a problem with this man since he was implemented.

Also, there is still no functioning plan how to make the farmers farm different products so that they have an income to feed their families. the agricultural competitveness of them had been shattered by establishing trade patterns that shipped plenty of foreign grain into the country, by control of the UN, so that the prices the Afghnaistan farmers would need to demand were so high in comparison to the cheaper import that nobody could or would buy from them, and so they turned for poppy. If you take away poppy, you will have a similiar effect like after disb anding the Iraqui army: you suddenly will have hundreds of thousands of desperate men with weapons who need to bring the bread home for their family, and thus willthink twice to fight for the taleban and the warlords for a small fee, and also to defend that remaining rest of their pride. The Afghan society is relatively young. Young men are over-represented in it's society.

The taleban will love to see NATO destroying poppy fields. NATO could as well offer the farmer a reward if they would join the taleban in fighting. On the other hand, the country has once again become the greatets poppy producer in the world, and that stuff lands on Wetsern streets, fuels Western organised crime and killes Wetsenr young people. So, whatever you do regarding poppy, you are doomed.

Trapped in the Afghan maze.

Nevertheless the german government, having no real longterm strategy anymore, and at home in berlin suffering from seriously distorted illusions, voted to send 1000 more troops. Just what realistically is to be acchieved in Afghanistan, on that nobody had to say a single word different from the usual braindead propaganda slogans. They probably wait for the good fairy to clean up their mess, or hope for an invasion from Planet Mars to establish a new world order, and until then hope to sit it out.

In recent time there seems a parallel to the Iraq war emerging that so far has not been spend much attention to: the lack of longterm planning for the time after the field battle. In Iraq, this lack of preparation and realoistic plans that took into account the realities on the ground decided the failure of the war already on the first day of the field battle. In Afghanistan, off-reality expectations and totally surreal assumptions as well as failures in support and ensuring a tough fight against corruption let the opportunity window close over a slightly longer period of time, but now it is obvious that it is shut. The chances for a "win" in Afghanistan (a not too hostile to the West government in command that is accepted and has enough authpority to prevent corruption and to stand above the local ethnic tensions) I initially estimated to be 30-50% at best, but now I see these chances to be almost non-existant. The point is - Afghanistan, like Iraq, is a homemade-failure. and nobody seems to have an exit-strategy. you do damage by staying, and you do damage by leaving.

Trapped in the Afghan maze.

Sounds like someone is "trapped in the Spiegel maze" more like. No wonder they've lost all their wars... :roll:

And still no one has taken me up on the idea of putting bombs on mountain goats to end this thing in a fair and balanced way...

Add to this an unfinished NIE that says Pakistan is on the brink. The Pakistan/Afganistan area is worse off and more dangerous than Iraq IMO.

PD

They should've had a plan about the "puppy" from day one. Let's hope they'll cook up something good. Iraq and Afganistan was never a military issue (well if you're the US that is :yep: ) it was always about the "next day". Does anybody believe they actually had a plan for it? Or that they were "adaptive" enough? :hmm:

Quote:

Originally Posted by Diopos

As you can see in the prize-awared documentary I had linked, and could have seen from many other sources as well as from just observing the obvious, they did not have a plan. Insiders working for the government as commandig authorities at location confirm that. All they had was a presdient leaving the decision making to others, and Rumsfeld and his demagogic talent. "I don't do quagmires", as he insisted. :dead:

I think both Obama and McCain were successful to let these two burning problems of foreign politics slip below the radar of election campaigning, surprisingly. Reason would have expected these problems to be a decisive key issue. Instead, it is almost unimporant, it seems.

Whoever looses the election, probably will be happy to have avoided needing to deal with these issues for real. While the winner will curse them.

Now Gen. Craddock joins the chorus.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/south_asia/7681166.stm

"Catastrophic" spy-desaster doing "historic damage"

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...590891,00.html

Quote:

a number of investigative teams from the EU and NATO have flown to Tallinn to probe the extent of the intelligence disaster. The investigation is being led by the NATO Office for Security, which is headed by an American official. As investigators pursue their work, they continue to unearth mounting evidence pointing to the enormity of the betrayal. A German government official has called the situation a "catastrophe," and Jaanus Rahumägi, a member of Estonia's national parliament who heads the parliamentary oversight committee for the government security agency, fears "historic damage."

Game and set - Russia.

Schei$$e. :dead:

NOFORN doesn't sound that stupid anymore, now does it?

This is what happens when players are given disproportionate positions to what there actual contribution merits/warrants.

I suppose Eisenhower as Supreme Allied Commander for Overlord is a good example of how it should be done.

Very interesting article. :up:

"he had access to nearly all documents exchanged within the EU and NATO" Ya some nobody from Estonia would be given access to everything, right. He may have gotten hold of several specific pieces of information and passed it on but nearly everything? Why would anyone agency allow one nobody from Estonia handle all the classified information?

Now that Mr. Obama is their dream come true the Euros are just promoting a scare piece to get the EU public stirred up over a new boogie man. Fear sells. Just like the politicians jamming bail outs down the throats of the public here. Fear sells.

The speech we should have heared at the G20

I already read this in the German version yesterday, and I liked it:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...591104,00.html

The same mafia giving us the current crisis - now does it again

Can't one just shoot this bunch of criminal pathologic egoists? Why are we expected to let them continue destroying our societies?

They are truly the cyanide of this modern world.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...s+%2B+analysis

Quote:

FHA-Backed Loans: The New Subprime

The same people whose reckless practices triggered the global financial crisis are onto a similar scheme that could cost taxpayers tons more

As if they haven't done enough damage. Thousands of subprime mortgage lenders and brokers—many of them the very sorts of firms that helped create the current financial crisis—are going strong. Their new strategy: taking advantage of a long-standing federal program designed to encourage homeownership by insuring mortgages for buyers of modest means.

You read that correctly. Some of the same people who propelled us toward the housing market calamity are now seeking to profit by exploiting billions in federally insured mortgages. Washington, meanwhile, has vastly expanded the availability of such taxpayer-backed loans as part of the emergency campaign to rescue the country's swooning economy.

For generations, these loans, backed by the Federal Housing Administration, have offered working-class families a legitimate means to purchase their own homes. But now there's a severe danger that aggressive lenders and brokers schooled in the rash ways of the subprime industry will overwhelm the FHA with loans for people unlikely to make their payments. Exacerbating matters, FHA officials seem oblivious to what's happening—or incapable of stopping it. They're giving mortgage firms licenses to dole out 100%-insured loans despite lender records blotted by state sanctions, bankruptcy filings, civil lawsuits, and even criminal convictions.

More good news from the wonderful world of unregulated market economy. rules for business? Are we totalitarian communists...? :88)

Well, in the end it is the logical conseqeunces of a system that declares unlimited selfishness a virtue and claims that it is the only way to do business. that it not only allows deformations like these practices, but even encourages, and even demands and commands them, is just a logical consequence if the law of the strongest is valid and egoism at the cost of the community is rewarded.

We now earn what we deserve. And the more we defend this system, the more we deserve to be betrayed by it. that the system in the long run simply does not function, and necessarily will bring the society running it to a fall, is an almost unimportant - at best: curious - foot note of history already. when you object regulations completely, you get anarchy. And anarchy does not build, but brings down.

It's not a matter how smart you are anymore. :nope:

It's how smart you are a Stealing now. :yep: :down:

Hello sky:D

You probably won't be surprised to learn that I see something totally different here.

It seems apparent to me that the cause is not deregulation but rather, excessive regulation. You may or may not remember some of my rants prior to and during the bailout debacle, where I basically said that this sort of thing was bound to happen. The first crisis wasn't brought about due to lack of government intervention, but because of it.

The problem comes when the government removes incentive by lessening the penalties for failure. You are correct in saying that an unregulated market is governed by selfishness. Indeed, a great many things are. So why would it surprise anyone when selfish individuals take the opportunity to profit and then let the state cover their failures with everyone else's money?

The beauty of a truly free market (which admittedly, must have limited, but strong, anti-fraud and anti-theft regulation) is that these people can't pawn off their failures. They get stuck with them unless they can sell them to someone else. If a business disappoints customers, it loses customers and it goes out of business. . Of course, in America's heavily-regulated economy, that doesn't always apply. Just look at General Motors or American Airlines. Both cost the taxpayers billions that they otherwise wouldn't have because the Feds stepped in to help them out with our money.

The key to the market is incentive (selfishness, if you prefer). The freedom to fail or prosper is the incentive. Remove or hinder either, and the market becomes ineffecient. It doesn't cycle the way it should. You wouldn't interfere with an ecosystem and expect it to function normally would you? The market is no different. It has good times and bad times, but it always grows.

Finally, remember that this country has not had a truly free-market economy that was largely independent of government since the second founding of the federally-sponsored central bank, which immediately set about mucking up the money supply and interfering with prices.

I know that you are aware of the dangers of plutocracy, so I'm confused as to how you could ever speak about deregulation as if it were a bad thing (except from an environmental perspective, of course, which is another discussion.) I mean, that would be combining the fiat powers of state over policy and money with extremely wealthy businessmen. How could it be any more plutocratic?

What system, exactly, would you like to see? A link is ok if you have typed it out before:up:

Dang, JM, you done it again!:rock:

Quote:

Originally Posted by UnderseaLcpl

The first crisis wasn't brought about due to lack of government intervention, but because of it.

Thats pretty much it in a nutshell.

The fact the regulations are lax enough to allow loans to people who can't afford them is the real cause of the problem. Untill this is delt with, the situation will not improve.

The fact that subprime loans make up such a large part of the loan market is a massive cause for concern. Here in Australia, Sub prime loans barely make up 0.1% of the overall loan market. This has ment bank and non bank lenders have had less loans failing than elsewhere (it has increased in the last couple of years, but 95% of loan still are going OK)

You don't have to stiffle the market, just make sure the market act with better control so things don't get as bad as they have. Sometimes letting a few of these companies fall will help remind others that if they play with fire, they too can crash and burn.