GER politics thread
 

We have one for the US, we have one for the UK - but none for Germany, the only remaining most important player in the EU after Brexit?

I get it started here, and we start with this article on the current voters' mood in Germany and the chances of the two candidates for the German general elections in six months.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...302-druck.html

P.S. Too bad that German media in past years have dramatically reduced their translation services and international (=English) media representation. Input from non-German media and international sources is thus welcomed.

Schulz? Does the Luftwaffe have enough private charter flights for him? :haha:

I really can't see him with his EP record being any more popular than Tante Merkel, but at the moment I think a bag of concrete is probably more popular.
Still, either are better than Meuthen, Petry or Bachmann.
Whoever gets it though has their work cut out though, no mistake.

Latest polls two days ago or so gave Schulz a 13 or 15 point lead over Merkel... Currently. And I think the absolute majority.

Its like it was in the US: Germans are called to choose between pest and cholera.

LOL, isn't that the usual choice in many an election these days.

I wouldn't bet against Merkel, she is a survivor.

The question I pose is.....are the right in the likes of Germany, France, Holland etc. yet strong enough to build a majority or have the ability to find sufficient coalition partners to gain power?

At the present time I think not but there is growing support for such factions.

Le Pen in France may have a realistic chance to become first already this coming election. Whether that automatically results in the FN forming a government coalition under its lead, is something else. But with so many people being fed up by the state of things in the West in general, anything is possible now.

Germany finds it hard to adapt to the apparently coming age of tax wars. But with its strong export focus it is depending on an international system that both Trump and May openly threaten to destroy.

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...a-1134668.html

I often said that I consider a country whose economy is too dependent on exports and thus factors outside its influential reach, is not really strong in economics, but weak, because it is highly dependent and vulnerable. As every martial arts athlete knows: solid stand and flexible, dynamic body tension is everything. The German stand is anything but that strong as it seems.

My money is on Merkel.

I don't even want to think about a victory of Schulz and a SPD, Green, Left coalition.:Kaleun_Sick:

The only thing I know when it comes to Germany is that both Denmark and Sweden is very dependent on how well it goes economically in Germany

Markus

It will take France to withdraw from the EU to cause massive damage but only the withdraw of Germany would bring it crashing down. And I just don't see ether country withdrawing any time soon.

Her star is descending, and she knows it, you can see and hear it in her. She has no chance to get elected due to conviction, not after the mass migration problems she channele dinto Europe and into Germany. If she wins (and I am anythig but sure on that), she only wins because people vote for her to prevent Schulz, like many voted for Trump just to prevent Clinton. Merkel has no opinion or conviction majority in Germany anymore, these times are over.

Does Germany have the funds and will to make up for the shortfall in income to the EU post Brexit?

All EU countries are very dependent on how well it goes in Germany. ;) Take away Britain, France, Italy, and the EU could still hobble on, somehow. Take out Germany from the EU equation, and the EU collapses within shortest imaginable time. Its not just the funding of the EU and about money, its also about the network of trading contacts, the traffic of goods, the longer, interlinked prouction lines that thanks to globalization make everybody more dependant and vulnerabel than before.

Lucky will be him who can afford to stay with himself and is autark. Germany is not. And this is what they call economic strength! :har: The revenge will find my country, its just a question of time. He who climbed higher than all others, will fall deeper than all others.

Funds are relative, since money is created at will by alchemists these days, value-securities are not needed anymore nor expected. The will? They maintain an intimidating front to Britain to penalise it and to scare away others wanting to do like Britain. But for Germany, the fall-away of Britain means the loss of the closest - before France! - ally in finacial discipline inside the eU, this is what makes the Brexit such a big headache for Germany, also that in the EU it is our most important trading partner. All others remaining, are against Germany, all want to spend more, more debts, more inflating and devaluing of money, more financing of rotting states by the ECB. and so forth. Italy wants it. Spain. France. Greece. Italy is stumbling. France is even bigger a thread to fall. Ticks sucking blood.

Its all a terrible mess, and it becomes messier every month and with every conference held by the ECB. Those TARGET2-saldi will one day fall down on Germany like a burning sky.

Its a long-known social-psychological dilemma, they have written books about it: when somebody has invested much into the wrong ways, he tends to stick even more to these wrong ways the deeper he manouvers himself into them - due to his fear that if he now gives up, all the earlier "investments" will be lost. By this "logic", he accepts to move from bad to worse and from big danger to guaranteed self destruction.

Let there be the German elections, and no matter who won them by then, after that the next government will be much more lenient again to allow Greece another escape, and more spending, and more debts, and more braking of legal obligations, treaties and laws. In the end, Germans, like everybody lse, prefer a horror without end to an end with horror.

By the end of tis century, we will see a very small elite in Europe ruling Europe in a very autocratic, if not openly tyrannic manner, with most of the material wealth focussed in even fewer hands than already now. On the way there we will go through various levels of intense violence and anarchy and and civil-war like rioting. When the new imerial order emerges, most people will even welcome it, just to feel at least physically safe again. But I forsee it will be life in poverty and misery and dictatorship. The writings aleady are ion the wall, but only few dare to open their eyes and read and take them as what they are. Because these writings on the wall as well predict a massive loss of all what has been invested in the past. And people just cannot imagin that this could happen. When bad luck or tragedy strikes people, usually the first question always is "Why me?"

Well - why not you? Even more since everybody is so eager to let it come this far?

So, Germany will carry on. It will pay for others with what today humorously and grotesquely gets called "money", and it is willing to do so. We will continue to do so until it really is too late and all is lost. Becasue as long as it is not to late and not all is lost, it still is not too late and not all is yet lost. Thats the simple logic behind it.

Bigger thread to the social peace over here is inflation killing private savings. Still, people are peaceful since most are not realyl understanding the danger and beleive the mainstream brainwash, and give their poltical loyalties more according to family habit than raisnable thnking, not to mention: insight into the real matter. This state cannot last forever.

Inflation increases just the QUANTITY of money, while deflation increases the QUALITY of money. That is somethign that even most politicians and bankers do not seem to understand. The needed cures all get prevented. The needed corrections are verboten. Social concerns lead the way into mass ruin. How social is that...?