:DL

I remember walking in the Yosemite back country about 15 years ago now, carrying those huge, heavy bear barrels to keep our food safe. We hauled them up and down mountains for a nearly a fortnight and I personally cursed them every step of the way. we got back to Yosemite village and a park ranger said to us: " You know, the bears here have figured out how to open those. They just roll them off a big cliff and if it's high enough the lid usually just gets smashed off."

Never underestimate a bear. If the Japanese take tanks to invade the Aleutians, i expect the bears to be driving them within a week...:yep:

Solomons, New Guinea and All Points South

Once the Japanese have neutralized The Philippines, Malaya and most of the Dutch East Indies it will be time for them to look towards phase two of their expansion. Usually, but not always, this mean the invasion of the Solomons and New Caledonia.

http://img823.imageshack.us/img823/9...seditnmma3.jpg

The three red circles are the bases he will likely move on first. Both Shortlands and Gaudalcanal are important, allowing him to build up overlapping fighter cover to provide escorts for his long range air out of Rabaul, as float plane and recon aircraft bases and as fuel and supply dumps for his fleet. The last is particularly important, I think, if he is planning to move against Suva , down to the south east. Suva is already on it's way to becoming one of my largest bases in the region and it's loss would hurt me.

Rabaul provides good sized anchorage for his shipping and the airfield can be built up to level 9, making it one of the largest in the region and allowing an unlimited amount of aircraft to be based there.

The three green circled bases on New Guinea represent my most important. Moresby and Buna can, like Rabaul, be built up to size 9 and both can be built up to good sized ports. Moresby is also important because whoever controls it goes a long way to controlling the Torres strait to the west.

Milne Bay is not as vital as Morseby but I've found it useful in the past as a fighter base and a location for a sub tender, allowing the S class boats to extend their range out towards Truk and the Marianas.

Timelines

Happy Times may wait until he has all of the DEI, Singapore and the Philippines under his control before moving onto Phase 2. This could take him a while as he is probably at the stage of prepping troops to deal with places like Batavia, Soerabaja and Palembang. He may also be counting on using troops from the Philippines for operations in the Solomons.

I expect landings at Rabaul within a month and the base, if I don't reinforce it, to be under his control by the 1st of March at the very latest. A late spring offensive is probably about right for New Guinea, with the Solomons being targeted in early summer. This should give him plenty of time to move assets around and prep troops for new locations. This is all based on what I would do, of course, with a nod to his relative speed and caution so far.

After this he may sit in, or press on with a Phase 3. Taking Suva and Isolating Oz would be a strong precursor to an invasion along the northern coast: Darwin most likely. I am trying to get as many supplies into Darwin as I can. The Indian units who were supposed to be on there way to Madras have not left yet. I am leaning towards keeping them where they are just now. I am also considering moving several armoured units to the north to help with defense.

13th Jan 42

Bit frustrating as I've only seen the combat replay and Juha is probably going to be busy until tomorrow. I wouldn't mind getting stuck in and correcting a few things.

CenPac

The Japanese land elements of the 52nd Naval Guards on Wake, taking their AV up to 75 against my 30. The AMC that took the hit from my PBY yesterday is peppered with shells from the Marine guns and is burning merrily.

As Wake is an atoll, the new arrivals automatically launch a shock attack, which I'm not sure was what Juha was anticipating. They take 600 casualties and fail to break my forts. we take 130 odd making it imperative for us to reinforce. I am thinking an infantry regiment should do it. When they've refueled, I'll send the carriers here at flank speed. It'll cause some extra system damage to the ships - travel at top speed for more than a turn or so usually does - but I want them to get in and try and sink some ships. At the very least I want them dive bombing the troops on the island and force them to use up supply. It's a question of how long Wake can hold out.

One other point. I'm unsure how well prepped this new unit is likely to be. I'm not sure where they start but I suspect it's the home islands. I may well be wrong about that, though.

USS Anderson, patrolling as part of an ASW task force, is torpedoed by I-21 NW of Pearl. I'm beginning to become disgusted with the failure of the USN to land hits on enemy subs. However, this is the first ship in the area the Japanese have actually managed to hit in what amounts to over a dozen such attacks over the last couple of weeks.

Malaya

A couple of smaller bases in central Malaya which the Japanese had so far ignored were taken by the enemy. They hadn't much to defend themselves with; the remnants of a Base force at one and an AA battery at the other.

More Oscars fly over, taunting my brave Buffaloes. A couple of losses on both sides but Juha is definitely gaining the upper hand here. I give it another couple of days before he starts a full scale bombing campaign aimed at knocking out the airfield, increasing troop disruption and destroying as many guns and defensive positions as he can.

PI

Happy Times has a lot of units on Luzon but, so far, they seem slightly toothless. Now that I've said that I fully expect some dinosaurs with chain guns and tactical nukes to paradrop into Manila tomorrow, such is my talent for prediction.

Both Clark Field and Manila are fairly well defended and supplied. I would like to still have them in my hands come February. In RL I think Manila fell on Jan 2, so I'm doing better than Macarthur...so far.

Sub Wars

Grayling duds south of Japan. KXVI misses a minesweeper in the Sulu sea.

China

An increase in the amount of land battles and ground bombing in China would suggest that Juha has decided on a course of action. Hopefully he has enough on his plate to really pay attention to the theater.

Where's the KB and baby KB at the moment? Don't want to steam those carriers out of port and slap bang into the KB. :hmmm:

KB was last seen heading southwest from Wake several days ago. The Baby KB made an appearance off the east coast of the Philippines about a week ago and then vanished again. I've been constantly scanning the combat reports for references to 'Carrier Aircraft' but I've seen nothing.

I wish he would commit the Baby KB. It keeps appearing for a day here and there and then it's off again. So far it's not really traveled further than the central Sulu sea. Like I've said before, if he'd been more aggressive with it in the first week or two he could have denied me a huge proportion of the shipping I got out of the DEI so I'm fairly happy he seems unsure what to do with it. I hope he sends it to Wake; my carriers could take it on without many problems.

If the KB was in the immediate area, I think I would have spotted it. I've good cover all across the area now: Midway, Canton, Christmas, Johnston and Wake all have PBY squadrons. I'm not saying he couldn't sneak it in, but if it was loitering I would hopefully know.

I wouldn't move the carriers if I wasn't sure. Once they leave Pearl at flank speed it will take them two or three days to get to Wake. If anything shows up I'll turn them around again.

On a different note, the unit he landed at Wake, the 52nd Naval guards, appears to be the one that took Tarawa. This suggests to me that Juha was not expecting the resistance he's faced on Wake nor the fortifications, which is why he's hastily grabbed one of the nearest combat units to plug the hole in his plans. It also means that these troops are, as I thought, likely to be badly under prepped. For attacking an atoll, preparation needs to be as high as possible; We're talking absolute minimum of 50% and ideally above 75%. given the fact that this unit would have started prepped for another target, and the seeming haste it has been thrown onto Wake, I don't think it could be much more than 25%. Still, he has a decided advantage in numbers now, and if his battleship gets frisky it could be all over bar the shouting by the time the flat tops arrive.

Hey Egan looking ok so far good eye spotting that trap he laid.

I have a question I want to build up a base at Pao Pao what units do I need to purchase and move there to support and construct a large port? Just any ole unit with engineers or engineer units? Or Base Forces?

Engineers to start with. You'd also need units with naval support squads to help with loading/unloading, rearming warships etc, and I'd recommend a unit with aviation support too if you want to base aircraft there. Anything else like coastal defence battalions or HQs etc is up to you.

Might be an idea to add some tenders of various sorts as well, especially a seaplane tender and a destroyer tender if you can spare them.

Ok, I got the turn back. Interesting times.

Bismarck Sea

My rigorous scanning through the combat reports reports for any reference to carrier aircraft paid off. It seems one of my subs operating in the Bismarck sea was attacked by a Val which is usually found on Japanese carriers. A quick check of the map showed what appears to be a strong carrier force moving around on the pacific side of New Britain. Is it the whole KB? Don't know. Is it the same carrier force that covered the landings at Wake? Don't know but if I had to guess I'd say yes.

Celebes sea

Dutch patrol aircraft seemed to have spotted another carrier force operating in this area. It reports at least one CV but I'm not certain. I think it's one of his Seaplane carriers and escorts rather than a true flat top.

This is the problem with FOW in the game: you can never be entirely sure what you are seeing. Of course, the better trained the flight crews are, the better chance you have of actually being certain. Even with the aircraft carriers at Wake I still can't say for sure it WAS the KB - it's more of a gut feeling based on a number of factors.

CenPac

Only two Japanese ships reported at Wake just now. Lex and Enterprise have refueled and are on there way there. A combined amphibious and supply convoy is currently waiting for the 4th Marine defence battalion to finish loading before it moves out. I wanted to move and infantry regiment to Wake but I can't afford it at the moment.

Wake itself is running low on supplies. It's down to about 650 tonnes now. While I don't think it will fall today, tomorrow or the next day, the situation has obviously reached that point where it's put up or shut up.

Oz

Repulse reached Sydney where she will reduce her system damage before going on to Capetown to complete her repairs. I originally hoped to repair her here but she is too big for the yard.

Various small convoys in the area have been alerted that Japanese aircraft carriers are operating east of PNG. There is no immediate danger but these things can change awfully fast.

Early in the game the Allied players has the services of one of the best troop transports you could ask for--the xAP Queen Elizabeth--with a speed of 31 knots and a troop capacity of 8900. Her only disadvantage is that she has to be withdrawn by April 1942.

Been using her for anything special Egan? :D I always found her good for the San Francisco to Sydney or Noumea troop runs. Her vast size precludes her from effectively visiting the more primitive anchorages along the way.

Funnily enough I was just looking at her last turn. She's in Sydney just now but I think she'll go to Aden to start hauling those boisterous Australian troops into the map. She's huge. I think the queen Mary shows up as well at some point.

A bunch of troop transports should be about to reach SF in the next couple of day where they will pick up a whole load of troops for use in the SWPac area. I think I'm going to go ahead and start fortifying Noumea as soon as I can.

House Rule Change

We changed the House Rule governing the maximum allowed height for fighter sweeps. It was 30,000ft and now it will be set by the second best maneuver band for each aircraft, so instead of an arbitrary limit, it will now be controlled by the performance of each aircraft instead. We changed it because it was pointed out that A: the new method is more realistic and B: the original rule failed to take into account mid and late war aircraft.

Juha seems to be having problems. The turn he just opened was from the 6th of Jan when it should have been the 13th or 14th. No idea what's going on..:hmmm:

Looks like now is the perfect time to dash those carriers up to Wake and out again before the KB storms back over, although that being said, I presume you'll be sending the carriers off to a different port from where they started after they've covered the landings at Wake? Or is there a zero risk of him snapping his KB over to intercept the carrier group coming back from Wake to their home port (Pearl?).

I don't think he could sneak up on Pearl now. If the group currently sailing near New Britain is the same one that was at Wake then it's going to take him several days to turn around and come back and that's not taking into account the possibility he might have an important reason for them being there.

Besides, The skies are full of search aircraft and, while I don't want too trust too much in them, they should be capable of serving some advance notice.

I have two worries just now: being spotted by a Glen launched from a sub, and the fact that there are Nells based in the northern Marshal islands. I'll stay to the north of Wake in order to try and avoid land based air.

Once the carriers arrive the dive bombers will start launching ground attacks but a few will remain ready for naval strikes. All the torpedo bombers will remain ready to attack shipping.

Of course, at the back of my mind is the possibility that the KB has been split up into smaller divisions, and that two or three of them may be hiding in the Marshals. Well, I won't find out if I don't go!

14th Jan 42

New Britain

A large landing force is about to start putting troops on the beach at Kaveing and another sizable force is rounding the western end on New Britain and entering the Solomons sea from the Bismarck sea. Thus ends my scatterbrained plans for reinforcing Rabaul. Of course, this landing fleet may not be going there. Moresby, Shortlands and Gaudalcanal are all possibilities. It explains why the carriers were lurking about although, in the best traditions of Happy Times playing style, they have once again disappeared.....I doubt they will be far away though.

It seems I was right about the carriers in the Celebes sea, though. A seaplane carrier is pushing down towards Ternate with a battleship escort. I'm not sure where they are going as they don't have any bases further south than Ternate and they don't appear to have any troop ships with them.

CenPac

The last Japanese ship, the merchant cruiser, has left Wake and heading back to the Marshals where Saury put a dud into him. My carriers are on their way but it will be at least two more days until they are within range.

Singers

Another prediction of mine came true when a huge air raid came over and bombed the airfield. They did a fair bit of damage but didn't get any planes. I've transferred two squadrons of Buffalo to Batavia and I'll gradually reduce the amount of squadrons further over the next couple of weeks.

Sub Wars

The Silent Service excelled themselves today.

Gudgeon, Sculpin and Saury all duds, Tambor and SS-36 both miss. The last is expecially annoying because she had a huge troop ship in her periscope....one of the ships moving into the Bismarck sea.

Thoughts

I'm not sure what to think. I didn't expect him to move into the Solomons until more of the DEI was under his control. I still have the bulk of the regions oil production, the bigger air and navy bases and, most importantly, the sea lanes are still open to me.

His moves in SWPac seem premature. Unless he's planning an all out attack on Australia? Maybe he wants to close the door to the west coast before he attacks. Even then that leaves the door to the Commonwealth wide open. I would be happy to move troops from Aden and India into Australia or launch a massive counter attack in Asia if he does this....

Meh, it's maybe nothing to ponder too much about. Hmmm.

15th Jan 42

Rabaul

He's come for Rabaul - and how!

http://img690.imageshack.us/img690/6...ndingsedit.jpg

That's a lot of ships. Carrier supports, cruisers, screening forces and at least two landing waves plus minesweepers. My subs have been told to get closer - for all the good they will do.

Options are limited. I'm seeing what air power I can scrounge up. I should have some Marine dive bombers in SWPac within a week which will be most, most welcome but until then I have a few squads of army dive bombers who'll have to step up. There are 5 P-40 squadrons in Oz now but they all have green pilots - Training takes time and only a handful back in the states are any where near ready. I don't want them going up against the cream of Japanese naval airpower but I might not have a choice.

CenPac

Gone from the headliner to a sideshow. The CVs are still on their way. Supply situation on Wake is stable as I now have three squads of Catalinas flying in from Midway every day.

India

Three Hurri squadrons are moving to Karachi from Aden as we speak. I'll feel happier once they arrive as we lack fighter badly in India. Now, if only I had some Air support units to maintain them when they arrive....

DEI

A stout battleship division is heading east towards Badlebedop, probably to refuel before heading to New Britain, and a buffed up baby KB is heading south through the Celebes Sea. I've scattered shipping to safe ports. I'm hoping he comes close to Soerabaja as I have several torpedo trimmed squadrons of Vildebeasts waiting.

There are actually several more task forces moving from the north coast of Borneo to the south, but it's too early to guess where they are going, although Balikpapen would probably be a good guess.