Skybird |
04-10-08 04:44 AM |
I only make a short jump-in-and-out, since discussions of this type are proven useless.
Global warming has been predicted to produce paradox effects that give the impression of that actually a cooling is taking place , and years in advance, long before climasceptics observed them in reality and started enthusiastically yelling about them. the thickening of ice in the arctic for example: it is a very old story. there is a raise in temperature, the total temperature nevertheless still staying below freezing point, due to higher temperature more moisture from evaporation is in the air, this meets the ice, you get condensation, then it freezes et voila: you have thicker ice for the imminent future because it is warmer. At the same time you make observations that the ice gets more brittle, and more and more often huge parts break off, while glacier disappear faster and faster due to the melting water creating almost a sldiing chute beloiw the ice so that it moves faster and gets additionally pierced from top to down, letting warmer air circulate and melt the ice even faster. the thickening of the ice: is a predicted, temporary effect that will reverse more sooner than later. It is a delayed effect, so to speak.
Same with models saying that CO2 increase helps to foster the green. This too is a long predicted, temporary effect, which will be followed by an even greater devastating desertification once the green has grown beyond a certain threshold level. I linked it at least two times over the past year. It is known. It is not sensational. It does not support that CO2 is good and we must not mind about how much there is. It is predicted an effect. There is nothing in it supporting that global warming does not take place or CO2 is good for the atmosphere. It is a poisoning that shows its poisenous effect with a delay.
Methane: many made ridicule of suddenly methane being considered a threatening variable for climate. they argued by a scheme of "if now methane is an argument, than the arguments before obviously must have been proven wrong". That is Quatsch. It only means that a new, an additional threat has been identified. I do not judge it, since I have not read enough on methane. but that there is a high concentration in areas where for example rice is cultivated, is self-explanatory. At least it seems to me that methane maybe is an even greater accelerating agent for climate change, than some others.
We have had temperature records in recent years, last winter was very cold in America, two winters ago we had such a record in Germany and Europe. At the same time we see records in high temperature during summer. 2003 was a pain over here, and meteorologists predict with a 70% chance that this summer will become the hottest in the past 16 years, they say. The general trend of global temperature also points upwards, not downwards, we see a massive warming of the oceans. We see a raise in weather extremes, both frequency and intensity - this is what it all is about, and again: this has been predicted, because the higher temperature increases the energetic activity in the atmosphere and speeds up evaporation and condensation cycles. more cloud activity. more thermal activity. More winds. Faster transportation of temperature fields. We see far more storms, and wee see them taking place at higher intensity. In Germany, it has multiplied by a factor of five over the past 20 years. We see more and bigger floodings worldwide. In Germany, statistics show us that floodings now take place 3-4 times as often as before. Hurricanes happen more often, and tornadoes, especially hurricanes showing a trend to increase in intensity.
we see the equatorial deserts expanding to the south and north, and the huge deserts becoming bigger, we see new species in our countries that before were not here because it was too cold. We see pathogens from the tropics moving north. We see desertification speeding up, and expanding. we see sweet water becoming a rare good, and a shrinking of farming lands in equatorial regions, one reason is "Überweidung" (over-farming?), the other is climate change making the ground infertile. We see on land and in the ocean animals travelling into Northern waters and lands that before were too cold for them. We see plants and micro-organisms doing the same. We see - if only we want to.
Some even say their data shows them that the activity of the gulf stream has lost 15-20% in activity already. Hooray, if that activity falls below a certain threshold level, it becomes cold in Europe - global warming? nonsense, a new ice age! Nevertheless, this loss in activity is due to a process called "Entsalzung", it means that too much sweet water from the melting ice at the poles has made the mechanism by which sweet water and salt water create maritime tidings like a huge pump is no more efficient. It is global warming creating this.
Now, a word on microcycles and macro-cycles. People need to learn to separate them, espeically climate sceptics who often show up with observations regarding micro-cycles and think that is an argument to question an unwelcomed macro-cycle, and vice versa. the changes of Earths climate of time frames of hundreds of thousands of years, and millions of years, are macrocycles. changes in sun activity, and the yearly differences in weather and mean temperature, are microcycles. Macrocycles in earth's climate in the past have often been due to fundamental changes of atmosphere composition. Fundamental means not necessarily massive and voluminous, but sufficient changes. there were times when existing life forms on earth almost completely ere wiped out due to sudden changes of atmosphere composition, making it almost poisonous. Also, there have been massive temperature differences, resulting in long times of ice ages, and tropical heat around all the globe. But we talk about things here that lasted usually over hundreds of thousands and millions of years. If the intensity of changes in earth's present atmosphere and temperatures are calculated against the amount of time in which they took place, you see a sudden speed increase of the process that is calculated in the range of factor between 500 and 1000. Some give even higher numbers, in the five-digit-range, but let's not doing academic hair-splitting, the point is: it has accelerated beyond reason and madness. And that has nothing to do with sun activity and changes in the solar system and weather on Mars anymore. Such a sudden acceleration means there has been an artificial variable interfering that before was not there. And this variable strangely corresponds with the time table of human history. In science there is the principle of picking the explanation that makes sense and is the less complicated. Man's activity has caused the global warming, that is. Voilá, you're done, lets switch from the theory on why it happened to the practise of how to survive it.
the IPCC has been wrong in one major thing: that they painted a picture of as if we still could delay and maybe prevent global warming and climate change if only we implement the correct measures over the next 15 years. That is total BS to not worry the crowds and make them vote for the correct party. They also based their projections on hopelessly optimistic assumptions on future energy needs declining, and the willingness of nations to reduce polluting levels. they have been criticised for this by I think American scientists and former IPCC members, I linked the article just days ago.
Not every "solution" Greens propagate is reasonable and realistic, and sometimes their thoughts even backfire and even increase the mess instead of reducing them. But to make that an argument to mock at climate change in general and argue: if their solutions are wrong, then the whole idea of global warming must be wrong, disqualifies for any further debate.
I again point out that there is a a very strong economic lobby that spends hundreds of millions of dollars on projects and PR campaign whose only purpose is to discredit scientists, make ridicule of their data, and replace their theories (sending reminders for changes) with more welcomed theories of that no changes need to be done, and the level of distortion of sometimes most elemental principles of scientifically working and data analysis is nothing less than hair-raising. I live by the impression that the profit-greedy industry was successful in making the climate debate an almost religious issue in which you either believe, or not. That's why I for the most do not debate these things anymore - there is nothing to debate, for the facts are clear and lay in the open for everybody to see - if he wants to see. And if he deliberately chooses not to look at them and instead turn his back and telling jokes to enjoy his audience cheering and laughing, then discussion is both impossible and pointless. It's waste of time.
But that does not free us from the facts of the situation we are in. We already pay the price for how we live. Our children will get hit by the consequences multiple times as hard. As parents, our generation is an almost criminal failure, for we steal our children's chances and make our living by eating up their future. Shame on us being haughty at the same time and celebrating ourselves for how responsible and civilised we are. We are cannibals.
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