Russia will withdraw all its military forces from Syria within a month, information from sources close to the military operations department in Syria told The New Arab’s Arabic language sister publication, Al-Araby Al-Jadeed on Monday. Moscow has already withdrawn part of its combat military forces from the Hmeimim base, its largest base in Syria located in the Jableh region of Latakia’s countryside, the report said. Russia withdrew 10 percent of its combat military forces from Syria to Russia over the past two days as two aircraft had transported military equipment from the Hmeimim base to Russia daily, in batches of two or three, the report added. Citing information from the Abu Amin Observatory, a local war observer also known as Observatory 80 and works alongside the military operations department, Russian military forces in the Hmeimim air base, Jableh region, Tartous and Qamishli airport will all withdraw successively within a maximum period of one month. https://www.newarab.com/news/russia-...a-within-month

The Economist gets quoted in German media with a report on that the HTS and Russia have started formal negotiations. The HTS demands full diplomatic recognition and economic aid and cooperation for leaving the bases to Russia. A HTS spokesman gets quoted with that "it is not about ideology, but about interests." The HTS obviously wants to avoid getting isolated and cut off from foreign aid like the Taleban in Afghanistan. So far Russia has offered only humanitarian aid, The Economist reports further. It remains to be seen if they value their bases that much that they will comply with the Syrian demands.



According to military analysts, Russian bases moving to Libya would be more vulnerable to NATO attcks in case of a war, Syria is seen as the safer of the two safe havens.

Look,Turkey backed by the NATO collapsed Syria.It's just another chess move against Russia.I for one if i live long enough want to see NATO destroyed. They have become not the World's Defender's.The Ideology of Democracy is no different than the past Ideology's is it ? I live in the country where you would think freedom exist.I can't afford to leave this country and see what is across the ocean that separates us.
And this government.Will not allow it. We would never come back. World dominice and if it means billions will die so be it. As long as Democracy has its own thousand year existence. And the worst for you is knowing your country will be obliterated again. All because the world's wealthiest will kill to stay in power,.

Oh, Damn the restrictions are strong on Subsim. Do not think you will get 2 paragraphs of opinion here if your not blue.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XHtTrWbxSEc

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hIMWfJmti7E

The new rulers face a huge task. More than 14 million refugees and displaced persons cannot return home properly until there is indeed a home. Most of the time, there is none. Reconstruction requires something of an economy, which also barely exists, plus some stability. That too is lacking in parts of the country where rival, sometimes Mafioso rebel groups call the shots. The new Syria lies in ruins, after 13 years of war. Car rides through Idlib province and around the city of Aleppo leave no doubt about that, elsewhere in the country it is no different. Entire villages and urban neighbourhoods have been shot to pieces. At best, concrete skeletons stand tall. Not a mortal to be seen.

The new government will have 14 provinces under its control, with a multitude of armed groups and minorities like alawites, Christians, Druze, not to mention the Kurds with their fait accompli, an autonomous region. If HTS makes a deal with the Russians, they will never get the foreign support Syria so desperately needs. Sanctions will not be lifted if we see the creation of an Islamic state, which none of the other factions will accept. The democratic Kurdish faction will not, and the Druze have already indicated that they would rather live under Israeli rule than under the next dictator, HTS. Who will help them Russia? Nah, so this rumor of Russia keeping its bases is just rumours there are no indications otherwise Russian FSB playing the western media.

^ That might be Western reasoning - but not nessecarily that of HTS.


Meanwhile it gets reported Turkey mulls a larger scale invasion of Syria, probably to go after the Kurds, and to widen its own influence inside Syria, Greater Turkey and Osmania 2.0 and all that... Confidence of such reports is undeclared.

This is reasoning of the HTS the economy of Idlib that is sanctioned HTS wants to get those lifted else HTS can not rule. Turkey does this for years not with boots but with air force support to the SNA turkey backed IS/Al-Qaeda groups. Nothing new, we know who is IS/Al-Qaeda and Turkey is one of them. Kurds fight for at least a decade on two fronts, IS/Al-Qaeda and Turkey.

Netanyahu's bold move: Israeli forces claim buffer zone in Syria

Thats why HTS negotiates with Russia over diplomatic recognition - and economic support. If Russia gives that, they can do a deal. Who gives them that - is of secondary interest, and the Russians would not mind if the HTS later lets the mask fall and pisses the Western philantropists. "Interest before ideology." (^) Also, HTS is aware of Western concerns for Syria falling into a multi-front civil war, and that this outlook may prevent the West from being a reliable economic supporter. Hence, Russia maybe even is the preferred option, even if the civilian population hates them - the HTS seems to look at it quite pragmatic.



The Russian manouvering to bring their troops to the airfield maybe is just negotiation tactic, to mount pressure on the HTS: "We are on our way out anyway, so tone down your demands if you want aid from us, else we are gone."



Its all open, I only say that I do not take any results this or that way as granted in advance. Maybe the Russians leave for Libya for sure. But its premature to say already now that they do. What we know is that Russia and HTS hold negotiations. And apparently on a higher intensity level than with the envoy of the EU.

^Russia can not invest in Syria, it does not have the means or can lift the sanctions that are main reason for the state of the Syrian economy could not support Syria in the past also never in the future. If Russia could it had not let the Assad regime fall they had a stable person in power with HTS they have none certainty it will become unstable. Russia could/can only offer a lifeline, no structural aid for the Syrian economy. Nobody and utterly nobody will invest in a Russian vassal.

The situation in Libya is different from Syria; there, the Russians had official agreements with Assad, the country's sovereign leader. Haftar does not have that status, which means the Russians cannot set up an official air base either. Added to this, Haftar is 81 years old. His sons are already fighting over who will take over after their father's death, according to analysts. This does not help the warlord's stability as a potential partner of the Russians. A naval base near Port Sudan would give the Russians strategic access to the Red Sea. From there, the Russians would be able to reach more western countries in the Sahel by land. This would require an end to the Sudanese civil war, which has been raging in the East African country since April. Djibouti is strategically located on the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, through which a lot of cargo traffic between Europe and Asia passes. For this reason, China, Japan, Italy and France have bases there. The largest US army base on the African continent, Camp Lemonnier, is also located in Djibouti. The Russians first expressed in 2012 that they also wanted to settle in Djibouti, a request that Djibouti later rejected under US pressure, as the Djibouti government ‘wanted to prevent the country from becoming terrain for a proxy war’.

For HTS the only pragmatic option is going for the western and Arab block, they can lift sanctions that destroyed the Syrian economy and have the means to boost it. Russia, the pariah never it, is an origami tiger.

Russia is withdrawing advanced air-defense systems and other sophisticated arms from bases in Syria and shifting them to Libya, U.S. and Libyan officials said, as Moscow scrambles to preserve a military presence in the Middle East... https://www.wsj.com/world/russia-air...bya-25810db0?2 <- Paywall!

Syria not a threat to world, rebel leader Ahmed al-Sharaa tells BBC

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=efKFRgGzI80

Markus

‪After a US meeting with HTS leader today, Barbara Leaf said Ahmad al-Sharaa (AKA Jolani) had committed to not allowing terror groups to operate in Syria and threaten US or neighbouring countries. As a result, the US won’t pursue $10 million “reward for justice” on al-Sharaa. https://www.axios.com/2024/12/20/us-...eet-hts-leader