Ironic that the conversation of invading Hawaii (or Oahu to be precise) comes about as I'm rereading "Days of Infamy" by Harry Turtledove. Now, you can pick apart Turtledoves knowledge of military equipment, but even he has to admit that supplying Pearl Harbour after invading it would have been a logistical nightmare and would have done little but pad the Pacific war out by a year maximum. As Yamamoto foresaw, once the US 'arsenal of democracy' got into full gear, there was simply no way to stop it, defeat was a certainty, I think the Japanese plan from '43 onwards was to make each American victory as costly as possible and thank God that Operation Olympic never went ahead.
Another scenario I've pondered about though is Japan leaving China alone from the beginning (it was a mess to get into) and then hitting the Soviet Union in '41, not long after the Germans had made their in-roads.
I doubt the US would have intervened, or indeed cut off the oil supplies (not at first...but Stalin probably could have persuaded FDR to threaten Japan with oil cuts if they didn't seek a peaceful end to the war, but if Japan got the Siberian reaches, their mineral problems are solved and their oil problems would soon be solved too (although that is applying hindsight in terms of undiscovered oil deposits).
It's something I might try out sometime in Hearts of Iron, but honestly I wouldn't know that if it failed it was because it was never really possible in the first place, or whether it was just because I suck at Hearts of Iron. :03::haha:
|