https://twitter.com/NewVoiceUkraine/...21398376878080

Markus

It gets reported that Russian troops successfully launched a counteroffensive in the region of Charkiv and Luhansk and approached the city of Kupjansk. US think tank ISW reports heavy Russian attacks along the axis Swatowe-Kremmina. It looks as if Ukrainian lines waver. Hopefully only temporarily.



Whoever thinks the Russians are short in reserves, has smoked good stuff. That the Russian would be able to launch regional counteroffensives is another thing that was not really expected. Could also be a provocation to force Ukrainians to deploy parts of their attack reserves.

The question is:
Do Putin dare to mobilize even more by calling more reserves to the war without trouble on the homefront ?

Can't remember who once wrote-If Putin call in his reservist it would be suicide.

No doubt that compared to Ukraine-Russia has 20-30 times more reservist if not more.

Markus

They transfer'd couple days ago troops from the Kherson Oblast because they do not expect an attack after blowing up the dam. So that's the reserves to deploy elsewhere, Ukraine are good defenders think their MOD will deal with this quickly.

Cherson and Charkiv are not really close to each other, but are half the front length apart ;) . I doubt they could have shifted reserves from Cherson to Charkiv in that short time. ISW says in fact it is the 76th airborne brigade leading the attacks - and that is in the region since longer time, I think.

Two very different views/theories on the status of and outlook for Ukraine.

https://www-tagesspiegel-de.translat..._x_tr_pto=wapp

I truly hope but I fear most that Ukraine will have huge difficulty in taking Crimea or other areas

I get positive when I see all the clips from pro-Ukrainian side on twitter, Yes it's propaganda. Until Ukraine is defeated I have hopes.

Markus

Ukraine must find a way to bypass those defense lines and attack them from the back if that is not possible they better wait for the F-16's.

Taking Crimea is an peninsula too far in my eyes, let them first take back areas lost after Feb 2022 if they can do that maybe something will happen in the power base of Russia.

It shouldn't come as a surprise for me, if we are seeing F-16's in the sky over Ukraine within a couple of month from now.

I'm convinced that Ukrainian pilots has been trained in flying these since month back this has been done secretly.

Markus

F-16s are no wonder weapons. Nor will the come in the numbers they would be needed in. Like always. Its always late what Ukraine gets, and always too much to die, too little to win. Finally, Russian air defences are not exactly shabby. By doctrine in late cold war, troops have more manpads than NATO troops.

F-16s are something for not late in next year. Ukraine cannot wait for them,
Western patience is running low.

That the conflict will "freeze", to me currently is the most likely scenario. In a few years then the Russians will start again. And maybe not in Ukraine.

Macronman leaves Babble-Olaf alone. The French has given up hope to influence Putin, and also is "snapped" that Putin has rejected all attempts by France to mediate. Macronman now says he wants a clear timetable for Ukraine to join NATO, no matter what - and that is nothing else but a 180° turnaround by him. It is also a declaration of mistrust of Germany's attempt to keep itself in the game by acting as a security guarantor for Ukraine - with a practically impotent military :har: . He also warned against Germany's idea of a united European air defence system (of which France is no part), stating that this would trigger a new arms race with Russia, and that it is an illusion to gain the ability to protect all European air space. Instead, the French see article 5 as the best guarantee to safeguard against russian aggression.



Well. Before Russian missiles hit France, they reach Poland and Germany. The NATO membership is okay if Ukraine in all regards qualify for the standards regading its military, and corruption therein must be cut down. Thats why Biden refused to ease the road for Ukraine, and he is right. Macronman's words on the air defence is an attempt to support French influence in europe in face of this Sky Shield initiave by Germany which France has refused to join. The German proposal is anythign but altruistic, when Bubble-Olaf says he wants to protect the Baltic and Polish air space, he means that these states should serve as protectors of Germany. Von der Leyen, when she still was a carricature of a German defence ministress, wanted to unite eastern forces under German command, equip them, but not contributing much troops. The heavy and the dirty and the bloody work should have been done by the Eastern neighbours - under German command. A German foreign legion, so to speak.



Our Eastern neighbours were so happy to hear that, I tell you.